Petroleum Business Review

Abstract The Islamic Republic of Iran has recently introduced the fourth generation of oil buyback contracts, known as the Iran Petroleum Contracts (IPC). The main objective of these new contracts is to attract foreign investment in the Iranian oil and gas sector. While the IPCs address certain risks associated with the Iranian Petroleum Buyback Contracts from the contractor's perspective, there are still additional concerns for contractors. To gain a comprehensive understanding of the risks associated with these contracts, this study takes a multi-faceted approach. Firstly, it provides an overview of upstream contracts in the oil industry. It then to identify and monitor all contractual and non-contractual risks linked to IPC contracts conducts a combination of qualitative methods (library and documentary research and Delphi method) and quantitative methods (interviews and questionnaires with 50 industry experts and companies involved in buyback, using techniques Fuzzy AHP, and Fuzzy TOPSIS). Through the use of these methods, the study aims to provide investors with valuable insights into the potential risks of the IPCs and assist NIOC in effectively responding to and monitoring these risks, thereby encouraging investment in the development of Iran's oil and gas projects.

Abstract The present article aims to examine the risk of host governments’ interference with the property of foreign investors (expropriation) in the petroleum industry. Host states have the police power to make regulatory changes. The “police power” is defined as the inherent and plenary power of a sovereign to make all laws necessary and proper to preserve public security, order, health, morality, and justice. It is a fundamental power essential to government, and it cannot be surrendered by the legislature or irrevocably transferred away from government. The government can interfere with the contract, change the terms, or directly take the investment. This is why international petroleum disputes and arbitration practices have addressed such risk. For this purpose, the concept of property and compensable property rights under international law are significant. Indeed, expropriation conveys a deprivation of a property owner of this property. This paper assesses the concept of expropriation, the international legal requirements for a lawful expropriation, and then analyzes the relevant international arbitral awards in petroleum jurisprudence.  

Abstract The present article aims to argue indirect expropriation in international petroleum agreements and analyze the response of international arbitrations. In particular, international arbitral awards by the Iran–US claims tribunal, the Yukos case as an energy charter treaty arbitration, and certain North American Free Trade Agreement cases have been examined. The recent trend shows that taking foreign investors’ property may occur not only through legislation or nationalization but also by indirect methods that can have the same effect as direct expropriation. Indirect expropriation does not necessarily require the transfer of legal title from the international oil company to the host state. Hence, it is difficult to distinguish between legitimate regulation and measures that are tantamount to expropriation with the payment of compensation. Identifying an indirect expropriation is complex and depends upon the examination of the legitimate expectations of the investor concerning the enjoyment of its investment. Host governments may employ different methods to achieve what amounts to direct taking, but without acknowledging it as such, to avoid legal consequences of expropriation and then payment of compensation

Abstract The United States is the world's first producer and consumer of oil and play a special role in international oil market relations. In a sense, due to the differences in the energy programs of the parties of this country, we will see significant changes in the international energy markets. The Trump's economic thinking in business field is based on the neo-mercantilist while the Democrats believe in global and multilateral trade. The most important energy policies of the Republican Party are the development and expansion of fossil fuel production, increasing the share of the oil market, lifting environmental restrictions, confronting OPEC, and unilateralism in the oil and gas trade. In contrast, the Democrats' most important plans in the US election are to return to the Paris Agreement and re-impose environmental restrictions, reduce oil production through legal sanctions such as taxes, expand renewable energy and use financial resources to manage the oil market and trade convergence. The main question of this article is what effect do US parties energy programs have on the oil market? The method of this research is a qualitative in a descriptive-analytical manner using desk research.

Abstract This study investigates the impact of global crude oil price fluctuations on the volatility of the Iranian Rial–U.S. Dollar exchange rate over the period November 2011 to August 2025. Using daily data and employing GARCH-family models—including GARCH(1,1), EGARCH(1,1), and GJR-GARCH(1,1,1) under heavy-tailed distributions—we examine whether oil price shocks influence the mean and conditional variance of exchange rate returns. The results indicate that higher oil prices significantly appreciate the Rial, reflecting Iran’s dependence on oil revenues and foreign exchange inflows. Volatility dynamics reveal strong persistence, with shocks exhibiting long memory. Asymmetric effects are also evident: negative oil price shocks increase exchange rate volatility more than positive shocks, highlighting the destabilizing role of downturns in global oil markets. Diagnostic tests confirm the adequacy of the estimated models, with EGARCH and GJR specifications providing the best fit. The findings underscore three key policy implications. First, Iran’s exchange rate remains highly sensitive to oil revenues, reinforcing the need for structural diversification. Second, the persistence of volatility complicates short-term stabilization, demanding long-term reserve and fiscal policies. Third, the asymmetric impact of oil downturns calls for proactive risk management to mitigate volatility in times of declining oil prices. Overall, the study provides new evidence on the oil–exchange rate nexus in an oil-exporting economy, offering lessons for macroeconomic management under external shocks. Robustness checks — including Bai–Perron breakpoint tests and alternative model specifications with event dummies — confirm the main findings.

Abstract This study investigates the multifaceted challenges of implementing digital transformation within Iranian oil and gas companies, focusing on organizational barriers and managerial solutions. Despite the global momentum toward digitalization, Iran’s oil and gas sector faces unique obstacles, including resistance to change, skill gaps, legacy infrastructure, and insufficient alignment between technology providers and large enterprises. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach, we conducted a survey of 210 managers and IT professionals across upstream and downstream organizations, complemented by in-depth interviews with key stakeholders. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and structural equation modeling (SEM) were employed to identify and validate critical barriers and their interrelations. Findings reveal that organizational inertia, lack of digital competencies, and inadequate investment in digital infrastructure are the most significant impediments, while leadership commitment and targeted training programs emerge as effective managerial remedies. The study contributes actionable insights for policymakers and executives by outlining a roadmap for overcoming digital transformation hurdles and achieving sustainable competitive advantage. The results underscore the necessity of a holistic strategy integrating technological, human, and process dimensions to facilitate successful digital transformation in Iran’s oil and gas industry.

Abstract Iran is one of the most important oil and gas producing countries in the world with 153.8 billion barrels of crude oil and 33.5 billion cubic meters of gas accounting for 9.3% and 18% share of the total oil and gas reservoirs respectively. Rich hydrocarbon reservoirs along with a special geographical location are of the most important competitive advantages of Iran. The oil value chain has a special place in the social, economic structure and the level of the development of Iran. In policy-making, especially in global equations and in the long run, where uncertainty is an integral part, it is necessary to pay attention to this area. As a strategic knowledge, future studies can play an important role in mapping the future. In the current study, the possible and plausible futures of Iran’s fossil energies (oil and gas) in the 2035 horizon are presented in the form of four scenarios. In an environment where variables are dynamic and constantly changing, and uncertainty is high, using scenario building methods is preferable for long-term horizons. In this work, 30 drivers with a high uncertainty and impact on the future of Iran’s oil and gas were produced. Using the cross-impact analysis model and the balanced impact model, out of 41,472 possible scenarios, 10 scenarios with the maximum compatibility were obtained and presented in four scenarios: a clean scenario (low carbon), a bipolar Middle East scenario, a cooperation and development scenario, and a postponed dream scenario.

Abstract Knowledge Management Pattern for Project -based organizations
using Grounded Theory (case study: Energy Industry)
One of the most crucial strategic challenges of organizations for achieving success and competitive advantage is related to knowledge management (KM) activities .Project based organizations(PBO) of Energy Industry is responsible for producing , retaining and using huge amount of knowledge . In order to manage it effectively , it is necessary to use a customized KM pattern of which is fit into specific factors of the PBOs. The main objective of this paper is to present a customized knowledge management pattern considering PBO charachteristics of the under investigated Engery Industry by using Grounded Theory (GT). Needed information is gathered by semi-structured interview with experts and reviewing recent papers.By using open ,axial and selective coding,components of final model and their relations are found. Results showed nineteen main concept and five secondary concepts which are formed in “reasonal situations”,”intervention situations”,”strategies”, “central components” and “effects