Petroleum Business Review

Abstract The research on the Markowitz model and optimization of its portfolio using a variety of evaluation indicators and metaheuristic-algorithms has always been the focus of attention of accounting and finance researchers. The results of studies carried out by various types of optimization method are different in the Markowitz modified models. The purpose of this study is to measure the optimal portfolio and its corresponding return with respect to the portfolio in the traditional Markowitz model as well as comparing the position of the refining and petrochemical companies versus stock market outperformers through integrating the operational criteria and the new indicators of liquidity by using the genetic algorithm in the Markowitz model. Therefore, financial data related to the research variables of 35 cases of refinery and petrochemical companies listed on Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) from 2012 to 2016 fiscal years were extracted from Rahavard Novin database software and simulated by the genetic algorithm. The results show that returns on the stock portfolios optimized using the genetic algorithm without considering the liquidity limitations and filters are significantly and positively different from the returns on the stock portfolios optimized with regarding the liquidity limitations and filters. Furthermore, the application of liquidity limitations and filters to the formation of the optimal stock portfolios leads to a conservative increase in the choice of stocks (portfolio formation), which results in a reduction in the risk and return of investment in such portfolios.

Abstract The liberalization of natural gas markets and the emergence of gas hubs in recent decades have shifted the natural gas trade from the regional to the global trade. The growth and maturity of these hubs have weakened the previously established relationship between the natural gas price and the prices of crude oil and petroleum products. Therefore, predicting the price of gas as a strategic commodity has become more important for different countries. Using the neural network method, this paper attempts to develop a model of the monthly prediction of natural gas price. Based on the time series data from 2012 to April 2019 as the input to the neural network, this model predicts the prices in five hubs and natural gas exchange centers in Europe. Based on the R² performance evaluation index of 98% of the neural network model fitted based on the aforementioned data series, the neural network model has acceptable performance in predicting the natural gas price. The results of this study show that using the artificial neural network (ANN) method, the gas prices in the European gas hubs, which are located in European countries, can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy.

Abstract The economics of two different power generation systems for an offshore complex installed in the Persian Gulf is considered. The base case defines the present condition in which the total power demand of the complex is supplied by burning the associated natural gas extracted from the platform on board in its thermal power plant. The purposed scenario considers a wind farm located near Bardekhun in Bushehr province to be connected to the complex power network and shares its power generated by renewable resources with the platform. The average wind speed and the wind turbine power generation are considered to have uncertainty. Thus, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is used to consider the uncertainties in the average wind speed and the wind turbine power generation. The purposed scenario is found obviously more beneficial with some conservative assumptions. The results show an about 30% reduction in pollution and a profit of $3 million in a year

Abstract Today, the strategy of outsourcing management, in economic enterprises and especially in governmental organizations, is one of the crucial issues in the field of procurement chain management and strategic alliance management. This issue in public organizations and institutions has its importance too. Because these organizations usually have a wide range of missions and supply chains, they need a comprehensive plan for outsourcing according to macro policies and strategies. Despite this importance, few studies have addressed the models of outsourcing development in firms. Using the content analysis method, this study aims to explain the model of outsourcing development management in oil and gas industry. Also, a deductive approach applied to the theoretical framework is developed in practice through case analysis in Iranian Gas Transmission Company. This company has the control of most of physical oil and gas assets in Iran. In addition to the researchers’ observation and reviewing the related documents, the information required for the research was obtained through an interview with a significant number of senior managers and experts in Iran’s oil and gas industry. Using the theme analysis method, this information was analyzed, and the expected situation of the outsourcing development management in the industry, as well as its impact and interactions, was described and explained.

Abstract The pipeline project, Nord Stream 2 (NS2), has been an issue of controversies. Russia and Germany consider the project an economic contract, but the United-States and Eastern European countries have concerns about its geopolitical effects. These disputes have created a divide in Europe and have posed a threat to trans-Atlantic relations. The current research suggests NS2 can influence the strategic balance between great powers in the international system, giving energy leverage to Russia against United-States, and consequently to China by strengthening projects like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Our findings put forward that not only NS2, in case of realization, is a source of American decline, but also the debates on the issue are a sign of American struggling for protecting its precarious international position. By placing Europe in front of the United-States, NS2 could be one component of European strategic autonomy (ESA); meanwhile, it may jeopardize ESA by depending on Europe on Russia. Europe’s solution to gain ESA is to use its leverages such as normative one to manage the situation for outcomes like protecting Europe’s unity and economic interests.

Abstract Natural gas infrastructure is growing and global LNG volumes are set to expand substantially. This results in more trade between different regions of the world and emergence of a more competitive and relatively more integrated global gas market. In addition, several key markets are currently undergoing structural reform with the aim of opening them to competition. In line with these changes in the global market, gas pricing methods also need to be adapted. This paper discusses the challenges of natural gas pricing and price review in this new market environment. Firstly, the current structure of the global and regional gas markets is analyzed. Secondly, challenges in natural gas pricing and price review are discussed, and in this context oil-indexation and hub-indexation are analyzed in detail. Thirdly, the recommended framework for pricing and price review in the more competitive global market are presented. The pricing mechanism and price review framework should be tailored to the characteristics of the gas market and the stages of growth and maturity of the market.

Abstract Companies have access to a variety of financial resources to implement available profitable investment projects, to settle overdue debts, to increase working capital, and to pay dividends to shareholders. These resources include cash from operating activities and the sale of assets (as intra-organizational sources of financing), borrowing loans from the bank, issuance of bonds, and issuance of new shares (as outside the organization sources of financing). Financing and its effects on the returns and risk of the company choose sources that minimize financing costs. Then, to prioritize the parameters, the hierarchical method, Topsis, and ANP were used. The results of this study indicated that the factors of efficiency, cost, sustainability, being operational, fairness, and transparency have been the most important criteria for choosing the financing method, as well as forming sub-consortia, receiving facilities, issuing participation bonds, establishing investment companies, presence in the securities market, creating a shareholder plan, and finally attracting foreign capital have been identified as financing methods. Also, the transparency of the financing method in the surveyed companies to identify the appropriate financing method had the least importance.

Abstract Converting unused offshore oil and gas installations into artificial reefs as one of the alternative methods of decommissioning, is used in many coastal states across the globe for the purposes of coastal management, enhancement and attraction of living marine resources, protection and preservation goals. Despite the positive impacts of artificial reefs, there are also potential negative impacts which require adequate maintenance of assets as well as, continuing monitoring and supervising. Although a lot of countries have comprehensive regulation on artificial reefs, many nations have blanket regulation requiring obsolete structures to be removed, yet it can bring about enormous environmental, socio-economic benefits. The sensitivity of deployment of structures as artificial reefs induced international and regional conventions to intervene and regulate the matter. The aim of this paper is to compare the most important international and regional conventions and critically compare and analysis them with the current Iran’s national laws and regulations. Iran is one of the biggest oil and gas producers and have a huge number of offshore installations which will require decommissioning in the coming years. Therefore, comprehensive national regulation should be enacted on decommissioning and also the possibility of creation artificial reefs. The authors seek out to evaluate the existing legislation in order to assess the potential capacity of Iran’s seas for converting the installations into artificial reefs.

Abstract This applied research was carried out to identify the primary and secondary components affecting organizational agility in the University of Petroleum Industry, PUT. In the qualitative section, by reviewing the researches and using a designed questionnaire, 13 hypotheses affecting the organizational agility of the PUT were evaluated. The statistical population includes 229 experts working in Ahvaz, Abadan, Tehran, and Mahmoudabad colleges. According to the results, out of 42 identified sub-components, 39 components and 13 main hypotheses were confirmed. The results show that the principal practical organizational agility components followed are organizational agility, human resource value creation, organizational leadership, strategic agility of managers, ICT management, training and empowerment of faculty and staff, establishing knowledge management, strengthening university infrastructure, and university culture. It should be noted that SMART PLS software and the partial squares technique were used to test the hypotheses.

Abstract The present article aims to argue indirect expropriation in international petroleum agreements and analyze the response of international arbitrations. In particular, international arbitral awards by the Iran–US claims tribunal, the Yukos case as an energy charter treaty arbitration, and certain North American Free Trade Agreement cases have been examined. The recent trend shows that taking foreign investors’ property may occur not only through legislation or nationalization but also by indirect methods that can have the same effect as direct expropriation. Indirect expropriation does not necessarily require the transfer of legal title from the international oil company to the host state. Hence, it is difficult to distinguish between legitimate regulation and measures that are tantamount to expropriation with the payment of compensation. Identifying an indirect expropriation is complex and depends upon the examination of the legitimate expectations of the investor concerning the enjoyment of its investment. Host governments may employ different methods to achieve what amounts to direct taking, but without acknowledging it as such, to avoid legal consequences of expropriation and then payment of compensation

Abstract This paper aims to show the asymmetric effect of oil shocks on Iran’s economy. It uses nonlinear time series models to investigate the asymmetric effect of oil shocks on resource allocation in Iran’s economy. The results show that adverse oil shocks have been more persistent during the last decades and severely negatively affect resource allocation in Iran’s economy. Different oil shocks have different implications for importing and exporting countries, and the rigidity of state fiscal systems in exporting countries causes adverse oil shocks to be more persistent. The oil economy’s response to positive and negative oil shocks depends on the structure of the economy. The government budget and trade balance have significant implications for the effects of oil shocks on oil-exporting economies. The government budget is highly dependent on oil revenues, so in the case of adverse oil shocks, the pass-through exchange rate will cause high inflation because of foreign exchange shortage and overshoot in the exchange rate. 

Abstract This study was conducted to determine the effect of the asymmetric oil price shock, tax revenues, resource curse, stock market, and business cycles of Iran by using the structural vector auto regression model (SVAR) for the 1984-2018 period. According to results of the estimated SVAR model, an impulse imposed by the duration of sanctions on oil exports led to an 89% increase in production gap, and impulses caused by liquidity and stock price led to 86% and 53% rises in production gap, respectively. Variation in oil and foreign exchange earnings results in different and even conflicting changes in foreign and domestic sectors of the economy, which subsequently affect the economic performance positively or negatively. Regarding economic structure and principles, a constant increased exchange rate leads to economic growth while a cross-sectional increment in exchange rate does not lead to any economic prosperity. Increased exchange rate and decreased domestic money weakness will increase foreign debt, which in turn causes liquidity shortage. Overall, the liquidity shortage of economic firms has a negative impact on the return of stock and business cycles. Hence, policymakers must pay considerable attention to macroeconomic indicators.

Abstract Paying attention to special opportunities and trying to enumerate existing capabilities at the heart of regions by using the scientific and technological capacities available to them are some of the instances in which the shortfalls in development programs can be eliminated and the way can be paved for a balanced progress at the local level with the fair distribution of opportunities. To this end, a transition from first (Education oriented) and second (Education and research oriented) generation universities, towards third generation (3G) universities which, in addition to education and research, actively seek to impact society and the economy, is one of the most central issues which can bring about full scale, dynamic, and sustainable progress in the regions based on science and technology. As a first step in the present research, attributes in third generation universities impacting regional progress have been examined by studying the resources. Using the Delphi method and Shannon’s entropy, the mentioned components and their weight were examined based on the opinions of 63 well-known experts active in the national oil industry and specialists in universities, and research, science and technology centers affiliated to the industry. Twenty-eight basic components and six principal components were approved in the survey of experts. Of these, three were prioritized and given weight in the following order:
1) Formulating regional endogenous innovation and value creation ecosystems, 2) designing and implementing a regional skills, education, and training system, and 3) developing organizational capacities according to the new functions of regional universities.

Abstract Today, Research and Development (R&D) activities in petroleum incubators are of vital importance and it is necessary to investigate different ways of commercializing the patents of these activities. The formulation of petroleum incubator strategy and coordinating it with technology strategy and corporate strategy can reduce the technology development and commercialization time period and creates comparative advantages. In this paper we develop an itemized model to draw a bead on the activities of petroleum incubators in a patent portfolio framework and to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of petroleum incubators. The model includes several categorized items that can be taken into account stage by stage. If this model is deployed in steady stages, the petroleum incubator can ensure that every new created idea will commercialize undoubtedly. Moreover, a considerable characteristic of the proposed model is the existence of programs for the patents application in prevailing and new created markets and also commercializing the patents of R&D activities to prevent the accumulation of unused knowledge in petroleum incubators. At the end of the paper, some suggestions to employ the model in real-life situations are recommended.

Abstract Technological learning and the drive to self-sufficiency in different industries emphasize the role of companies in the knowledge acquisition from external sources. Iran's petroleum industry is also a suitable case to study in this area, given the large firms on the one hand and the long-term historical partnerships with foreign companies on the other. Some of the industry's achievements, such as sustainability under sanctions, the country's largest source of export and some recent breakthroughs, particularly in the registration of international patents and localization of various technologies, show the success of learning efforts. This study, which examines the learning processes to joint R&D (JRD) projects in the petroleum industry, analyzes the path of technological learning in this industry using a mixed method approach and multi case study method. For this purpose, four successful JRD projects in technological learning in upstream and downstream are selected and 16 interviews are conducted with project managers and experts of selected projects and using the JRD's life cycle to present a technological learning model in JRDs. The results of theme analysis of interviews show that the most important and effective component of the model is "effective factors". The most affected component is "types of learning". Also, the most effective factors and the most effective learning mechanism are "absorption capability", "cultural homogeneity" and "learning by interacting" Respectively.

Abstract In the behavioral finance paradigm, investor sentiment can affect managers' behavior in financial reporting. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between investor sentiment and the likelihood of fraudulent financial reporting. Additionally, as risk disclosure may influence the relationship between investor sentiment and the likelihood of fraud, this paper investigates its moderating role. For this purpose, the data of 41 companies operating in the petroleum and petrochemical industries in Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2013 to 2021 were used. The research models have been examined by logistic regression method. The results show that the likelihood of fraud is lower when investor sentiment is high. Furthermore, the study of the market's reaction to fraud shows that the market reaction to fraud announcements is less negative during high investor sentiment periods. In addition, the results demonstrated that risk disclosure moderates the relationship between investor sentiment and the likelihood of fraudulent financial reporting. It may be because, risk disclosure reduces the impact of investor sentiment on auditors' optimism by reducing information asymmetry between managers and investors. This leads to an increase in audit report clauses that confirm likelihood of fraudulent financial reporting.

Abstract This research was conducted with the aim of studying the effects of oil and gas industry development on the state of social damage in the native community of Assalouye. This research was conducted using quantitative and qualitative methods, in the qualitative part, the in-depth interview method was used, and in the quantitative part, survey and correlation research methods were used. The population of the current study was the native residents of Asalouyeh, 17 of them participated in the qualitative part using the purposeful sampling method, and 380 people participated in the quantitative part using the random proportional classification sampling method. In order to collect data from the qualitative part, in-depth interviews were conducted with the participants, and the data from the quantitative part was collected using a semi-standard and researcher-made questionnaire. The results showed that under the influence of the oil and gas industry entering the region, social harm has increased significantly. Most of the respondents stated that due to their dissatisfaction with their current living situation, they would move to change their place of residence if possible. The results of the quantitative analysis showed that before the entry of the oil industry, the quality of life can explain the variance of the criterion variable, i.e., the state of social harms, in a significant way to the extent of -20%.

Abstract The present study aimed to identify and prioritize the factors affecting the marketing of knowledge-based products of basic chemicals. This research is applied in terms of objectives and a data-based cross-sectional survey concerning its method. Initially, the factors affecting the marketing of products in this sector were identified based on library and field studies and by purposive sampling of 15 senior managers of knowledge-based chemical companies (research experts) utilizing a semi-structured interview and in the form of a questionnaire. Cochran’s formula was then employed, and 400 experts and staff working in this department were selected as the study’s statistical population through simple random sampling. Subsequently, confirmatory factor analysis was used to analyze the data and check the final model’s fitting. In the end, each factor’s relative importance was determined by the fuzzy DNAP method. The results led to the identification of 16 sub-criteria under seven main criteria, including technical and managerial, information and knowledge, economic, infrastructural, legal, and support issues, besides supply capabilities. The results revealed that the information and knowledge criterion and the innovation sub-criterion had the highest score, while the supply capability criterion and the knowledge management sub-criterion were ranked last.

Abstract In recent years, the completion of the value chain and increased exportation of petrochemical products have been utilized to offset oil and gas export losses. As a result, this may have created various challenges and complexities within the oil and gas industry. The study aims to identify key challenges confronting Iran's petrochemical industry, with a particular focus on regulatory issues. It seeks to distinguish and prioritize the most critical regulatory factors necessary for establishing an effective regulatory framework in the petrochemical sector. For this study, data was collected through several interviews and questionnaire with Iran's petrochemical experts. With the collected data, the Delphi method was utilized to help identify the most critical challenges. The impact and significance of each challenge were determined through statistical analysis. The research findings indicate that the most important challenges are the weakness of laws to attract foreign and domestic investors, the lack of trust and lack of integration in this industry from upstream to downstream sector, respectively. Also, based on the research results, it show that it is essential for Iran's petrochemical industry to have two regulatory agencies. The "Competition Council" and the "Securities and Exchange High Council" as regulators of the physical and financial markets are considered, however, for them to regulate effectively the overall structure of these councils must first be dramatically reformed. The important effective regulating factors which should be emphasized by the regulator in Iran's petrochemical industry were indicated and ranked as allocation, responsiveness, financial independence, legal independence and political independence.

Abstract The legal regime of oil and gas in Iran, started with concession contracts, has evolved from partnership contracts to service agreements during its transformation. In all types of these contracts, there has been efforts to preserve national interests, through the insertion of various contractual provisions and elements. Approving the first oil law in Iran (oil Act 1957), some of these elements entered into the law and became binding. Gradually, with reforming of oil laws in different periods, these elements, have also been changed in the law. This paper is discussing how to apply and evolve these elements in Iran's oil contracts and laws, as well as determining the role of these elements in the development of Iran's oil and gas legal system. The results show two different periods. Adopting of oil Acts of 1957 and 1974 in the first period, legislative developments moved towards the completion and creation of a coherent and targeted legal regime. In the second period, after the Islamic Revolution of Iran, there was no unified approach to formulating a comprehensive oil law in the oil Acts of 1987 and 2011, and the oil Acts in this period are very brief and concise, so that most of the issues related to the oil in the oil industry, remained silent in these Acts and dealt with in other Acts other than the oil Acts. In this period, oil contracts played a more prominent role in the development of oil rights than the law, and the issues that remain silent in the oil Act, are mentioned in oil contracts of this period. Therefore, the role of law in the first period and the role of contract in the second period have been more prominent in the development of Iran oil and gas law.

Abstract This study explores the intricacies and challenges of financing the oil and gas industry in Nigeria, a sector that has significantly shaped the nation's economy since the discovery of oil in Oloibiri in 1956. Despite Nigeria's substantial oil and gas reserves and the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) in 2021, which aimed to overhaul the legal framework and attract investor interest, the sector still faces a significant financing gap. The study examines the challenges that have hampered the sector's growth, including inadequate infrastructure, frequent sabotage, inadequate funding and the reluctance of foreign banks to invest due to perceived risks. It also evaluates the available financing options, differentiating those applicable to local, international oil companies, and the national oil company. The research highlights the importance of selecting the best financing options for oil and gas business while exploring various financing strategies available to players in the oil and gas industry.

Abstract The United States, recognized as the leading global producer and consumer of oil, significantly influences the dynamics of the international oil market. Therefore, changes in governments and their policies in the energy sector have a significant impact on the oil market, especially for oil-exporting countries like Iran. Hence, it is imperative to conduct an analytical assessment of the implications arising from the transition of political power in the United States on the global oil market dynamics. This study examines the implications of Trump's energy policies on the global petroleum market, focusing on Iran. The research employs a qualitative, descriptive-analytical method using desk research to explore how these policies impact Iran's oil exports, market share, and geopolitical standing. Under the Trump administration, the U.S. pursued an "energy dominance" agenda characterized by increased fossil fuel production, deregulation, and a confrontational stance towards OPEC. This neo- mercantilist approach aimed to bolster U.S. energy security and economic leverage. Trump’s Key policies include expanding fossil fuel production, lifting ecological restrictions, and promoting unilateralism in the oil and gas trade. This will likely lead to a decrease in oil prices in global markets, which will, in turn, result in reduced oil revenues for Iran and put pressure on its share. Additionally, Trump's policy of regional confrontation with Iran could also impact these outcomes.

Abstract One of the main challenges for the regulators of oil contracts in Iran is the financial and taxation system and the auditing procedures of oil contracts. This issue has, even after the Islamic Revolution and until today, always been one of the concerns of oil stakeholders, especially in Iran. Nowadays with the selection of the service contract format as the only approved contractual template in upstream oil operations, oil companies, acting as contractors, carry out the investment in oil operations and, if the contractual objectives are achieved, are entitled not only to the reimbursement of costs but also to receive fees. Based on the principle of “no profit, no loss” and in order to prevent the contractor from unjustly benefiting by overstating incurred expenses, the parties classify the costs and, using accounting and auditing principles, stipulate the definitions, instances, and calculations methods of the costs, and so forth. Given Iran’s growing need to conclude Joint Operating Agreements (JOAs) aimed at facilitating technology transfer through enhanced reservoir recovery by assigning operational responsibilities to an Iranian operating company while maintaining the contractor’s overall responsibility it is essential to revise and adapt Iran’s accounting and auditing procedures to align with the specific requirements of such agreements. In this regard, the model accounting procedures published by international petroleum associations can serve as effective and practical benchmarks for reform.

Abstract Iran faces persistent challenges in balancing energy demand and sustainability, driven by limited social participation and the absence of integrated policy frameworks. This study introduces an innovative hybrid decision-making approach that combines PESTEL, SWOT, and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) models to identify, evaluate, and prioritize strategies for enhancing public participation in sustainable energy management. The research adopts a mixed-method design, integrating qualitative expert interviews and content analysis in MAXQDA with quantitative weighting and ranking through Expert Choice AHP. The proposed framework captures both macro-environmental influences and internal institutional capacities, linking social-behavioral insights with data-driven prioritization. Results indicate that developing targeted educational programs and creating interactive digital platforms are the highest-priority strategies, with normalized weights of 0.35 and 0.30, respectively, followed by local collaboration networks and incentive-based policies. The findings reveal that applying a combined social and analytical modeling approach can increase public participation potential by over 60 % and contribute to a 25 % reduction in energy consumption in the medium term. The study offers a novel quantitative–qualitative framework adaptable for developing countries seeking to operationalize community engagement within national energy transition policies.

Abstract Purpose: This study examines the impact of product diversification on asset returns in petrochemical companies using a kernel density approach, addressing contradictory findings in the diversification-performance literature within this capital-intensive sector.
Design/methodology/approach: Employing an ex-post facto research design, we analyzed data from petrochemical companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange from 2011 to 2021. The study utilized a two-stage analytical approach: first classifying companies into life cycle stages (growth, maturity, decline) using discriminant analysis, then testing hypotheses through multivariate regression and cross-sectional analysis. The kernel density estimation provided a non-parametric assessment of diversification effects.
Results: The results demonstrate that product diversification significantly enhances asset returns in petrochemical firms, with the Herfindahl index revealing seven distinct market concentration levels. The positive effect of diversification was particularly pronounced in monopolistic market structures. Empirical evidence confirms that diversification serves as an effective strategy for improving financial performance and mitigating market dependence.
Originality/value: This research contributes to the literature by introducing kernel density estimation to diversification analysis, providing a more nuanced understanding of return distributions beyond traditional parametric methods. The study also offers unique insights into the petrochemical sector's dynamics in emerging economies, highlighting how market structure moderates the diversification-performance relationship.
Practical implications: The findings suggest that managers should prioritize diversification strategies, especially in monopolistic environments, to enhance asset utilization and financial resilience. Policymakers can use these insights to design industrial policies that encourage strategic diversification in response to Iran's economic conditions.