Strategic Foresight for Iran's Oil Refining Industry: Identifying Drivers, Uncertainties, and Development Pathways to 2050

Sadrania, Alireza; Pourezzat, Ali Asghar; Rezayan Ghayehbashi, AHAD; Eivazi, Mohammadrahim; Ahmadi Marvast, Mehdi

doi:10.22050/pbr.2026.576453.1430

Strategic Foresight for Iran's Oil Refining Industry: Identifying Drivers, Uncertainties, and Development Pathways to 2050

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Alireza Sadrania ¹

Ali Asghar Pourezzat ²

AHAD Rezayan Ghayehbashi ³

Mohammadrahim Eivazi ³

mehdi Ahmadi marvast ⁴

¹ Futures Studies, Alborz Campus, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

² Campus of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

³ Faculty of Governance, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

⁴ Associate Professor, Research Institute of Petroleum Industry, Tehran, Iran

https://doi.org/10.22050/pbr.2026.576453.1430

Abstract

Iran’s oil refining industry, which serves as the backbone of the national economy and supplies over 95% of domestic transportation fuel requirements, is situated at the intersection of geopolitical challenges, global energy transition dynamics, and increasing environmental pressures. Adopting a foresight studies approach, this research identifies and analyzes the strategic drivers and uncertainties that will influence the design and development of Iran’s petroleum refineries through 2050. Utilizing a mixed-methods methodology encompassing a systematic literature review, analysis of international reports (OPEC, Shell, IEA), macro-level (PESTEL) and micro-level (Porter’s Five Forces) analyses, semi-structured expert interviews, and MICMAC (Matrix of Cross-Impact Multiplications Applied to a Classification) structural analysis, 34 key factors were extracted and ranked. The findings indicate that foreign policy, domestic governance, demographic trends, global energy transition, emerging technologies in the oil, gas, and petrochemical sectors, environmental policies and regulations, and domestic consumption patterns are the eight principal drivers steering the system. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that the confluence of environmental pressures (decarbonization, stringent environmental regulations), shifting demand patterns toward petrochemical products, and restricted access to advanced technologies owing to sanctions reinforces the strategic imperative to transform conventional refineries into integrated “petro-refinery” complexes. This study provides a dynamic roadmap for policymakers and industry leaders to enhance sectoral resilience, decarbonization, and global competitiveness through integrated petro-refineries, novel technologies, and smart governance while capitalizing on opportunities arising from the eastward shift of global energy gravity.

Highlights

· Application of a mixed-methods futures studies approach integrating PESTEL analysis, Porter’s Five Forces, expert interviews, and MICMAC structural analysis to systematically identify the drivers and uncertainties shaping Iran’s oil refining industry through 2050.

· Identification of 34 key factors, classified into six domains—political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal—as the principal drivers shaping the future design and development of Iran’s oil refineries.

· Identification of three uncertainty states for key drivers, including foreign policy scenarios—continued confrontation, eastward alignment, and détente—and energy transition scenarios—accelerated substitution, continuation of current trends, and slowed substitution—which are critical to scenario development.

· Confirmation that domestic governance factors, including state monopoly, administered pricing, and legal uncertainties, constitute the primary barriers to attracting private capital and improving efficiency in Iran’s refining sector.

Keywords

Futures Studies

Oil Refining Industry

Drivers

Uncertainties

MICMAC

Subjects

Oil and Gas Economics and Management

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