Petroleum Business Review

Abstract The exchange rate in Iran’s economy, is one of the most critical indicators influencing fiscal, trade, and monetary policymaking. Given that a substantial portion of the country’s foreign exchange earnings is dependent on crude oil exports, any fluctuations in oil revenues can directly or indirectly affect the exchange rate. This relationship becomes especially significant under circumstances such as international sanctions, global oil price volatility, and the structural dependency of the government budget on oil revenues. Consequently, a precise understanding of the mechanisms by which oil income influences the exchange rate is essential for designing sustainable currency policies and ensuring the country’s macroeconomic stability. The present study investigates the long-term relationship between oil revenues and the exchange rate in Iran during the years 2002 to 2024, utilizing the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) econometric method. Through the analysis of quarterly time series data and unit root tests, the stationarity and then cointegration of the variables were examined. The test results indicate that the variables are integrated of order one, and a cointegration relationship exists among them, justifying the estimation of the model using FMOLS.The findings reveal that, according to the model estimates, oil revenues and non-oil exports exert a significant negative effect on the exchange rate. Specifically, a one-percent increase in oil revenues leads to a 0.41 percent decrease in the exchange rate (signifying an appreciation of the Rial), while an increase in non-oil exports results in a 0.72 percent decrease in the exchange rate.

Abstract One of the most important factors that investors pay attention to in stock markets is stock price fluctuations, which is the basis for evaluating the performance of company managers. The performance of the company's stock includes the yield from the resources under the company's control and is considered a suitable criterion for reaching the set goals. In the meantime, one of the things that influenced widely on the world financial markets is the outbreak of the 2019 Covid-19 epidemic. The Covid-19 pandemic is known as a black swan event since it was a rare, unexpected, unknown phenomenon with a high and universal impact. Therefore, the current research purpose is to investigate the fluctuations in the stock prices of petrochemical industry companies affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. For this purpose, 19 petrochemical companies of Tehran stock exchange were studied between 2017 to 2022. The data gathered daily and included 19 petrochemical companies in 220 working days for 5 years. The results showed that the shock caused by the growth of the corona virus initially caused a decrease in price volatility in petrochemical companies, but after two periods, the reaction of price volatility to the shock was positive. Finally, the shock effect disappeared after seven cycles.

Abstract In the behavioral finance paradigm, investor sentiment can affect managers' behavior in financial reporting. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between investor sentiment and the likelihood of fraudulent financial reporting. Additionally, as risk disclosure may influence the relationship between investor sentiment and the likelihood of fraud, this paper investigates its moderating role. For this purpose, the data of 41 companies operating in the petroleum and petrochemical industries in Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2013 to 2021 were used. The research models have been examined by logistic regression method. The results show that the likelihood of fraud is lower when investor sentiment is high. Furthermore, the study of the market's reaction to fraud shows that the market reaction to fraud announcements is less negative during high investor sentiment periods. In addition, the results demonstrated that risk disclosure moderates the relationship between investor sentiment and the likelihood of fraudulent financial reporting. It may be because, risk disclosure reduces the impact of investor sentiment on auditors' optimism by reducing information asymmetry between managers and investors. This leads to an increase in audit report clauses that confirm likelihood of fraudulent financial reporting.

Abstract The purpose of this research is Effectiveness of the Green Tax Sustainability Consequences based on Themes of Pluralistic Decision in Petrochemical Firms. The methodology of this research is a mix methodology and it has been used by Meta-synthesis, Delphi and Rough Theory. The target population was the qualitative, similar research and academic experts in the field of accounting. But the target population in a quantitative part was 22 managers of petrochemical firms, which is acceptable from the statistical population due to the requirement of rough theory analysis. In this study, based on the meta-synthesis analysis of the selected researches, 6 pluralistic/pluralistic decision propositions and 4 consequential components of green tax sustainability were determined, which entered the Ruff collection analysis phase due to the confirmation of theoretical adequacy based on Delphi analysis. The results in this section identify the most influential pluralistic/pluralistic decision-making proposition, the three propositions of social responsibility in decision-making; it was the reduction of conflict of interest in decision-making and the legitimacy of decision-making that affects green tax sustainability and reduces emissions as the most effective component of green tax sustainability consequence.

Abstract It has always been a challenging question for financial analysts, investors and activists in the capital market that what factors affect stock price of companies. Furthermore, how such factors cause stock price fluctuations over time in the capital markets. Therefore, the aim of this research is to determine the effects of key contingent variables such as changes on equity, credit rating and assets price growth on stock prices volatility of petroleum companies listed on Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). Financial data for the purpose of this study were collected from a sample of 91 companies during a period of eight years from 1392 till 1399 and research hypotheses were tested using the multivariate regression models and ordering panel data with fixed effects tests. Results showed a significant negative relationship between credit rating and stock price volatility. But, there was no significant correlation between changes on equity and stock price volatility. Also, there was not a significant relationship between assets price growth and stock price volatility.

Abstract Technological orientation is one of the competitive functions in the capital market, which can be considered as a basis for evaluating the advantages of companies in achieving strategic goals. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of geographical location on the technology capabilities. In this study, resource based view (RBV) has been used to develop the research hypothesis. In this study, first, using data envelopment analysis (DEA) method to measure the technology capacities of companies then, considering that the dependent variable of the research was measured as 0 and 1, based on logistic regression, the research hypothesis was tested. The result of testing the research hypothesis was that the level of significance of the coefficient of variable geographical distance (DIS) has a negative and significant effect on the technical efficiency vector (TEV). This result, based on the test of the theory of resource reliance theory, indicates the fact that the existence of a geographical distance from the center can affect companies' access to competitive resources, and in this situation, reduce the capabilities of their core technology compared to competitors. This study is one of the few studies that examines the effect of technology capability on the geographical distance of petrochemical companies and its results can help strengthen the strategic decisions of companies. Therefore, based on this, this study can be considered innovative because it helps to develop theoretical literature and strategic decision-making implications.

Abstract As a significant consequence of internal and external characteristics in auditors, independence plays a vital role in promoting professional judgment in auditing. This dimension of individual audit functions has always been considered one of the areas studied in this profession due to its integration with the perceptual and often intangible features of auditors’ behavior. Therefore, this study, understanding the importance of independence functions in the auditing profession, seeks to identify the characteristics of inertia as a stimulus for independence in auditing in the petrochemical industry to act on its interpretive ranking. This research is a mixed method due to the nature of data collection. It first uses interviews to identify the characteristics of inertia in the auditing profession and then employs the checklists of the pair scale to determine the interpretive ranking. Accordingly, the grounded theory and the quantitative part are used in the qualitative part, and Delphi analysis and the interpretive ranking process are used. The statistical population in the qualitative section were 12 auditing professionals who, in terms of theoretical knowledge, had the necessary capabilities to develop the concept studied in this study. They were selected through theoretical sampling based on the snowball technique. The statistical population in the quantitative part were 19 auditors with work experience in the petrochemical industry and a level of technical and specialized knowledge; they were selected using homogeneous sampling. The research results in the qualitative part indicate the existence of 3 categories, 8 components, and 35 concept codes that have laid the inertial features in the auditing profession in the form of an 8-dimensional integrated model. On the other hand, the results in the quantitative part show that the percentage of influence of the locus of control feature is higher than other inertial features in the audit profession in the petrochemical industry, implying that the auditor’s encirclement on individual control in success and failure can avoid a set of external factors such as chance and lead fate in audit functions. In other words, an auditor with the characteristics of an internal locus of control tries to use his/her ability to express independent behavior in professional comments and judgments, regardless of external reasons

Abstract The purpose of this study is to level the optimal analytical topics for evaluating the cost of petrochemical stock in the capital market. In this study, which was synthetic and inductive-deductive in terms of data collection method, 12 accounting and financial management specialists at the university level participated as panel members in the quality department. In fact, in the qualitative part, which used meta-synthesis and Delphi analysis, the aim was to identify the optimal analytical themes for the valuation of cost-effective stocks and then, in a small section with the participation of 16 petrochemical brokers, to classify the identified statements in the form of a total interpretive structural modelling based on impact priority. Therefore, relying on meta-synthesis analysis, 12 studies were first evaluated as the basis for evaluation to determine the optimal analytical themes of cost-based stock valuation based on critical evaluation, based on which 11 themes were selected propositions and entered into Delphi analysis to determine theoretical adequacy. In this stage, 3 propositions were removed during the two stages of Delphi analysis and a total of 8 analytical propositions of stock valuation were economically entered into the quantitative analysis section, ie total interpretive structural analysis. In this section, the results show the most influential analytical themes of cost-effective stock valuation in the petrochemical industry, two statements of normal stock market price analysis based on the current rated price of "K2" and a focus on the net asset value is "K3", which is at the fourth level of this model.

Abstract With the increasing competitiveness of the capital market, one topic attracting the attention of many financial researchers in recent years is the formation of abnormal stock returns as a stimulus for restructuring companies due to the difference between actual returns and expected (normal) returns. It can motivate investment in the capital market. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of the reasons for the formation of abnormal stock returns on the content of the autopoietic restructuring theory of companies operating in the petrochemical industry in the capital market. In this study, to identify the components (reasons for the formation of abnormal stock returns) and research propositions (content themes of corporate autopoietic restructuring theory), a combined analysis was used with 15 accounting experts at the university level. In the quantitative part, the components and propositions identified in matrix questionnaires were evaluated by the interpretive ranking process (IRP) by 20 financial managers of capital market petrochemical companies. The results showed that the most compelling reason for the formation of abnormal stock returns is the institutional and regulatory causes of the stock market, which has the most significant impact on the dimension of the autopoietic restructuring strategy of petrochemical companies. In other words, institutional and regulatory changes in the stock market by upstream institutions will be able to influence the restructuring process to match the content with the structural process (the autopoietic approach).

Abstract The main purpose of this research is to explain why and how the stock liquidity affects the default risk of petrochemical and petroleum products companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. The study used experimental data and parametric tests in order to estimate the relationship between stock liquidity and default risk through information efficiency and corporate governance roles of stock liquidity. The present research is applied in terms of purpose and is a descriptive-correlative study. All data required regarding the stock liquidity, price, trading volume and days, stockholder ownerships, etc., were extracted from Rahavard Novin database software. To investigate the relationship between variables, the multivariate regression analysis model using OLS method was applied in Eviews platform. The empirical findings showed that there is a significantly negative relationship between stock liquidity and default risk of petrochemical and petroleum product companies listed in TSE and also stock liquidity can affect the default risk through reducing the information asymmetry in the stock pricing process and strengthen the corporate governance. These results could provide visible signals based on the realities of the market in order to improve models to assess and predict the risk of default and lead managers and decision makers of suppliers, customers, partners and stakeholders, to conclude more flexible contracts with petrochemical and petroleum products companies and ultimately better mitigate business risks.

Abstract Supply Chain Sustainability is a new and highly influential debate that has drawn the attention of researchers in the field of supply chain management. This concept is particularly important in the oil and gas industry because of its nature and the risks and sustainability risks associated with this industry, especially environmental hazards. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the risks related to supply chain sustainability in the oil and gas industry based on the FMEA method. The statistical population of this study consisted of all experts familiar with the concept of sustainability in the oil and gas industry, out of which 10 experts were selected and surveyed through snowball sampling. The results showed that among the risks posed in the field of supply chain sustainability in the oil and gas industry, risks such as failure and pollution in surface (hydrological) and groundwater (hydrogeological) systems and flows, energy price fluctuations and sanctions as well as the emission of hazardous and greenhouse gases, the reduction of air quality and climate change were prioritized over other risks, as well as sustainability commitment (organizational culture, top management leadership and transparency), management readiness (risk management, cross-functional teams and performance management) and external factors (political stability, economic stability, stakeholder pressure, energy transition policies, and laws and regulations) can all play an important role in managing the risks associated with this industry.

Abstract The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of comparability and environmental uncertainty on the expected rate of return. The current study utilizes panel regression method estimator to investigate the relationship between comparability, environmental uncertainty, and the expected rate of return of 500 firm-year observations in oil, gas, and petrochemical firms listed in Iran Securities and Stock Exchanges for the period of 2009 to 2018. The results show that the comparability and uncertainty have a significant effect on the expected rate of return. In other words, the expected rate of return is a function of comparability, and it varies at different levels of comparability.

Abstract Entering today’s competitive world, most businesses, especially small and medium-sized businesses (SMSs), have been overwhelmed and frustrated by the monopoly structures of developing economies most of the time because of the recession and the sanctions of powerful countries. The intensity of this tension has increased several times. Thus, the need to focus on entrepreneurial orientation as a strategic principle will be a way to improve and develop these businesses effectively in the economies of societies, especially developing societies such as our society. The purpose of this research is designing a total interpretive structural model (TISM)of the entrepreneurial orientation of SMEs in oil industry. In this qualitative and quantitative methodology, five university experts in the field of entrepreneurship participated in the meta-analysis and Delphi field to identify the research components and propositions from the same research and to reach competence. The identified component theory and propositions were analyzed by Delphi analysis. In the quantitative part, with the participation of 25 managers of SMEs in oil industry and using matrix questionnaires, the identified propositions were stratified into a range of the most influential propositions to the least effective ones. The results of the qualitative analysis section revealed the existence of three main components based on 15 statements. According to the findings in the quantitative section, technologically, the most influential causes in the oriented SMEs in oil industry are the entrepreneurial businesses.

Abstract Stock price prediction is one of the crucial concepts in finance area. Machine learning can provide the opportunity for traders and investors to predict stock prices more accurately. In this paper, Closing Price is dependent variable and First Price, Last Price, Opening Price, Today’s High, Today’s Low, Volume, Total Index of Tehran Stock Exchange, Brent Index, WTI Index and Exchange Rate are independent variables.
Seven different machine learning algorithms are implemented to predict stock prices. Those include Bayesian Linear, Boosted Tree, Decision Forest, Neural Network, Support Vector, and Ensemble Regression. The sample of the study is fifteen oil and gas companies active in the Tehran Stock Exchange. For each stock the data from the September 23, 2017 to September 23, 2019 gathered. Each algorithm provided two metrics for performance: Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error. By comparing the aforementioned metrics, the Bayesian Linear Regression had the best performance to predict stock price in the oil and gas industry in the Tehran Stock Exchange.

Abstract Designation of incentive mechanisms to increase the speed of liquidity of receivables is one of the leading options for streamlining domestic resources in the field of oil and gas industry financing. The main objective of this research is to investigate and optimize the liquidity methods of gas sales receivables in line with the requirements of the National Iranian Gas Company. After a deep review of literature, we extract methods and legal platforms for receivables liquidation methods. The current research is an applied and descriptive-analytical research in terms of its purpose and methodology. The data analysis is a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods and required data for this study including the amounts and duration of deferred receivables by different categories of subscribers of the NIGC during 2012 to 2018. Subsequently, in order to visualize the data in the form of heat tables, Microsoft's Business Intelligence software is applied to understand the process of creating and settlement of receivables, cluster receivables by the different categories of subscription and, finally, reveal the subscriber behavior patterns in disbursements. Finally, using theoretical foundations and experts' opinions, a set of optimal methods has been recommended to accelerate the process of collecting current receivables, depending on the behavior of different groups of subscribers. Based on the results of the interviews, NIGC should apply IT-based methods, incentive policies and deterrent (punitive) strategies to accelerate the liquidation of receivables in household and commercial subscription.

Abstract Projects are affected by many internal and external factors. Such factors could be initiated domestically or internationally. The South Pars is a mega gas field in Iran which requires billions of dollars for development and gas extraction. Its development has taken a rather long time and gone through many challenges over the last two decades; due to several challenges, especially international barriers.In this research, the effects of sanctions on the expenditurs ofselected activities in developing of pars field between internal and foreign contractors is investigated. The main purpose of this research is to calculate the cost of selected activities of South Pars phases and compare the performance of internal contractors in sanctions conditions with foreign contractors in non-sanctions conditions.For this purpose, 18 activities which were similar in all of South Pars contracts,were selected.In these three sections, after applying relative indexes,global inflation, and technology by using inferential statistics, the total cost were considered among internal and foreign contractors. Based on the statistical analysis,there was no significant difference between the expenditures of selected activities performed by internal contractors and foreign contractors Under sanctions.

Abstract Due to the importance of technology and innovation in the oil industry, it is necessary to look more closely at the intellectual property of this industry. Intellectual capital is a concept that can classify and report the technology capabilities and knowledge spillover in a comparative format. The present research is aimed at providing an appropriate framework for reporting intellectual capital in oil industry companies. For this research, semi-structured interviews have been done with 15 experts and people from petrochemical and petroleum companies with intellectual and experiential thinking space. After the interview, the relevant texts were analyzed by the thematic analysis method. Finally, the intellectual capital reporting framework was extracted as a qualitative research product. Then, a questionnaire was designed to assess the acceptance of the qualitative model, which was distributed among the statistical community consisting of professors and PhD students and experts of different universities and companies. The results of the distributed questionnaire showed that the components of the framework were approved by the respondents.

Abstract The purpose of the current work, conducted in 2017 and 2018, is to identify and
prioritize the qualitative and quantitative factors affecting human resources
(HR) valuation at National Iranian Oil Company and its subsidiaries. Using a
snowball sampling method, 28 experts were selected from the head of human
resources, the head of finance, and some staff members of National Iranian
Oil Company and its subsidiaries. In order to identify the dimensions and
components affecting human resources valuation, a comprehensive literature
review at international and national levels, interviews with experts, and
three stages of distribution and collection of questionnaires using the Fuzzy
Delphi method were performed. Then, two phases of the paired comparison
questionnaire were developed and provided for the experts to explain and
evaluate the cause-and-effect relationships between the dimensions and
the components together. The specified components and dimensions were
prioritized using the Fuzzy DEMATEL method. Using the Fuzzy Delphi
method, 15 dimensions and 101 components influencing HR valuation were
identified at National Iranian Oil Company and its affiliated companies.
According to Pareto 20-80, 20 components were identified as the factors
influencing human resources valuation at National Iranian Oil Company and
its subsidiaries, and using the Fuzzy DEMATEL method, 15 dimensions
and 20 specified components were prioritized. According to the results
obtained, the most important dimension and component affecting human
resources valuation at National Iranian Oil Company and its subsidiaries are
job satisfaction, motivation, and perseverance in employees’ assignments.

Abstract Overconfident managers, who tend to overestimate their capabilities, underestimate the possibility and impact of side effects in projects. The purpose of this study is to review the effect of managerial overconfidence on research and development expenditures and the moderating effect of firm value and liquidity on this relationship. For this purpose 51 companies were chosen from oil/gas, and petrochemical Companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2012-2017. This research, within three basic hypotheses, is analyzed by Eviews software and shows that managerial overconfidence has positive effect on research and development. Company liquidity has direct effect on relationship between managerial overconfidence and R&D, but firm value has no meaningful effect on the relationship between managerial overconfidence and R&D.
Keywords: managerial overconfidence, R&D, liquidity, firm value

Abstract The purpose of this study is to evaluate the financial performance of provincial gas distribution companies as affiliates for National Iranian Gas Company. To this end, we identified financial performance indicators in accordance with the requirements of NIGC through a review of theoretical foundations and interviews with a number of financial and planning experts and then prioritized using the Analytical Hierarchy Process method. These indicators lied in four groups of liquidity, capital structure, profitability and activity criteria, respectively. Then, the weighted indicators were analyzed using TOPSIS technique in Expert-Choice software and the final ranking of the companies was provided. The results showed that based on the identified criteria, provincial gas companies of Hormozgan, Yazd, Markazi, and Kermanshah had a favorable financial performance and Ilam, Mazandaran, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari and Zanjan provincial gas companies had a weak financial performance with respect to other companies in three years under review and some suggestions have been made in this regard.

Abstract Though it is generally accepted that information asymmetry has an impact on capital structure policy, the nature of the information asymmetry is not well understood. Recent theoretical works and empirical evidences suggest that financing choice depends upon the information asymmetry about investment risk of the particular use of funds (Halov & Heider, 2012) (Rao, Mohanty, & Baxamusa, 2015). Consistent with this view, we analyzed the data gathered among 199 companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during 2009-2016 by The Multiple Linear Regressions in order to test research’s hypotheses have been applied. We also examined the influence of Petrochemical industry on that relationship. The findings show that equity is used to fund projects with greater information asymmetry about their risk such as intangible assets and capital expenditure, while debt is used to fund investments with lower information asymmetry about their risk such as liquidity enhancement. We also found that the membership in petrochemical industry has no effect on the intangible assets and cash holding’s financing method, but concerning with capital expenditure and working capital the impact is significantly negative.