Quarterly Publication

Identifying and Prioritizing Risks Related with Time Delays in Oil and Gas Projects

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Management, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, University of Qom, Qom, Iran.

2 Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, University of Qom, Qom, Iran.

3 MSc. Department of Management, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, University of Qom, Qom, Iran.

4 Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, University of Qom, Qom, Iran.

5 Department of Accounting, Faculty of Management and Economics, University of Qom, Qom, Iran.

Abstract
Delay is an event that increases the completion time of a part of the project, which is one of the main problems in the executive projects of the country and causes an increase in project costs as well as damages. Project delays pose significant risks to the project that are dangerous for the project to continue. These risks are of particular importance in oil and gas projects. The purpose of this study is to identify and rank the risks related with delays in oil and gas projects. The present study is applied in terms of orientation and quantitative in terms of methodology. The statistical population of the study is managers and experts of risk and delay in oil and gas projects in the country. Among these people,15 people were selected as the sample by judgmental sampling method. For data collection, two questionnaires of expertise and prioritization were used, both of which had validity and reliability. In the first step, the risks associated with project delays were extracted by reviewing project risk and delay articles. In the next step, these risks were screened using the Binominal test.11 risks had a significance coefficient higher than 5% and were excluded from the calculations. The remaining 8 risks were prioritized using the Codas distance technique. According to the data of the relative evaluation matrix and the scores of each risk, the risks of sanctions, inflation, and lawsuits and complaints had the highest priority, respectively. Finally, research proposals were developed based on significant risks.

Keywords

Subjects

Adeleke, A. Q., Ajibike, W. A., Muuka, G. N., Darun, M. R., and Moshood, T. D. (2021). Managing 
External Risk Factors on Oil and Gas Project Success: A Dream for All Firms. ASCE-ASME 
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering, 7(4), 
04021063. 
Agarwal, P., Sahai, M., Mishra, V., Bag, M., and Singh, V. (2011). A review of multi-criteria 
decision making techniques for supplier evaluation and selection. International Journal 
of Industrial Engineering Computations, 2(4), 801–810. 
Alsuliman, J. A. (2019). Causes of delay in Saudi public construction projects. Alexandria Engineering 
Journal, 58(2), 801–808. 
Amarkhil, Q., Elwakil, E., and Hubbard, B. (2021). A meta-analysis of critical causes of project delay 
using spearman’s rank and relative importance index integrated approach. Canadian Journal of 
Civil Engineering, 99(999), 1–10. 
Amoatey, C. T. and Ankrah, A. N. O. (2017). Exploring critical road project delay factors in Ghana. 
Journal of Facilities Management. 
Asheghi-Oskooee, H., Ramezanzadeh, M., and Maleki, M. H. (2021). Religious Tourism Development 
Strategies in Qom Province: Using and Comparing QSPM and Best Worst Methods. The 
International Journal of Religious Tourism and Pilgrimage, 8(8), 30–41. 
Bahrami, A. and Maleki, M. H. (2016). Selecting Suitable Educational Institutes for Outsourcing 
Process Based on Comprehensive Approach of ANPBOCR (Case Study: Qom University). 
Carlier, S., Hustache, J. C., Jelinek, F., Dunlop, R., and Note, E. E. C. (2006). Project gas-environmental 
impact of delay. EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre, Rept. EEC/SEE/2006/006. 
Carstens, D. S. and Richardson, G. L. (2019). Project Management Tools And Techniques: A Practical 
Guide. CRC Press. 
Dedania, H. V., Shah, V. R., and Sanghvi, R. C. (2015). Portfolio management: Stock ranking by 
multiple attribute decision making methods. Technology and Investment, 6(04), 141. 
Ebrat, M. and Ghodsi, R. (2014). Construction project risk assessment by using adaptive-network-based 
fuzzy inference system: An empirical study. KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, 18(5), 1213–
1227. 
Fashina, A. A., Fakunle, F. F., and Omar, M. A. (2020). A study on the effects of construction project 
delays in Somaliland construction industry. J. Manag. Econ. Indust. Organ. 
Fathi, M. R., Maleki, M. H., Boroomand, M., and Koksal, C. D. (2019). Strategic Planning of Tourism 
with an emphasis on Spirituality Based on New Integration of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making 
Techniques. International Journal of Tourism, Culture and Spirituality, 4(1), 93–123. 
Gholami, I., Rayanpour, E. (2016). Evaluation and analysis of delays caused by the contractor and the 
employer in the project of widening and improving the Sefid-Ghaemshahr bridge axis, 2nd 
International Conference on Research in Science and Technology, Turkey, Istanbul. 
Ghorabaee, M. K., Amiri, M., Zavadskas, E. K., Hooshmand, R., and Antuchevičienė, J. (2017). Fuzzy 
extension of the CODAS method for multi-criteria market segment evaluation. Journal of 
Business Economics and Management, 18(1), 1–19. 
Gondia, A., Siam, A., El-Dakhakhni, W., and Nassar, A. H. (2020). Machine learning algorithms for 
construction projects delay risk prediction. Journal of Construction Engineering and 
Management, 146(1), 04019085. 
Govindan, K., Rajendran, S., Sarkis, J., and Murugesan, P. (2015). Multi criteria decision making 
approaches for green supplier evaluation and selection: a literature review. Journal of Cleaner 
Production, 98, 66–83. 
108 Petroleum Business Review, Vol. 7 (2023), No. 3 
Guan, L., Abbasi, A., and Ryan, M. J. (2020). Analyzing green building project risk interdependencies 
using Interpretive Structural Modeling. Journal of Cleaner Production, 256, 120372. 
Hatmoko, J. U. D. and Khasani, R. R. (2019, August). Mapping delay risks of EPC projects: a case 
study of a platform and subsea pipeline of an oil and gas project. In IOP Conference Series: 
Materials Science and Engineering (Vol. 598, No. 1, p. 012095). IOP Publishing. 
Honari Choobar, F., Nazari, A., and Rezaee Nik, E. (2012). Power plant project risk assessment using 
a fuzzy-ANP and fuzzy-TOPSIS method. International Journal of Engineering, 25(2), 107–120. 
Islam, M. S., Nepal, M. P., Skitmore, M., and Kabir, G. (2019). A knowledge-based expert system to 
assess power plant project cost overrun risks. Expert Systems with Applications, 136, 12–32. 
Jena, R. and Pradhan, B. (2020). Integrated ANN-cross-validation and AHP-TOPSIS model to improve 
earthquake risk assessment. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 50, 101723. 
Kahraman, C., Keshavarz Ghorabaee, M., Zavadskas, E. K., Cevik Onar, S., Yazdani, M., and Oztaysi, 
B. (2017). Intuitionistic fuzzy EDAS method: an application to solid waste disposal site selection. 
Journal of Environmental Engineering and Landscape Management, 25(1), 1–12. 
Karami, M., Samimi, A., and Jafari, M. (2020). The necessity of risk management evaluations in 
petrochemical industries. Advanced Journal of Chemistry-Section B, 2(3), 151–158. 
Kendrick, T. (2015). Identifying and Managing Project Risk: Essential Tools for Failure-Proofing your 
Project. Amacom. 
Keshavarz Ghorabaee, M., Zavadskas, E. K., Olfat, L., and Turskis, Z. (2015). Multi-criteria inventory 
classification using a new method of evaluation based on distance from average solution (EDAS). 
Informatica, 26(3), 435–451. 
Keshavarz Ghorabaee, M., Zavadskas, E. K., Turskis, Z., and Antucheviciene, J. (2016). A new 
combinative distance-based assessment (CODAS) method for multi-criteria decision-making. 
Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research, 50(3). 
Keshavarz-Ghorabaee, M., Amiri, M., Zavadskas, E. K., Turskis, Z., and Antucheviciene, J. (2018). 
Simultaneous evaluation of criteria and alternatives (SECA) for multi-criteria decision-making. 
Informatica, 29(2), 265–280. 
Koulinas, G. K., Demesouka, O. E., Sidas, K. A., and Koulouriotis, D. E. (2021). A TOPSIS—risk 
matrix and Monte Carlo expert system for risk assessment in engineering projects. Sustainability, 
13(20), 11277. 
Koulinas, G. K., Xanthopoulos, A. S., Tsilipiras, T. T., and Koulouriotis, D. E. (2020). Schedule delay 
risk analysis in construction projects with a simulation-based expert system. Buildings, 10(8), 
134. 
Lei, F., Wei, G., and Chen, X. (2021). Model‐based evaluation for online shopping platform with 
probabilistic double hierarchy linguistic CODAS method. International Journal of Intelligent 
Systems, 36(9), 5339–5358. 
Liu, H. C., Wang, L. E., Li, Z., and Hu, Y. P. (2018). Improving risk evaluation in FMEA with cloud 
model and hierarchical TOPSIS method. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 27(1), 84–95. 
Liu, J., Meng, F., and Fellows, R. (2015). An exploratory study of understanding project risk 
management from the perspective of national culture. International Journal of Project 
Management, 33(3), 564–575. 
Lo, H. W. and Liou, J. J. (2018). A novel multiple-criteria decision-making-based FMEA model for 
risk assessment. Applied Soft Computing, 73, 684–696. 
Lo, H. W., Shiue, W., Liou, J. J., and Tzeng, G. H. (2020). A hybrid MCDM-based FMEA model for 
identification of critical failure modes in manufacturing. Soft Computing, 24(20), 15733–15745. 
Maleki, M. H. et al. / Identifying and Prioritizing Risks Related … 109 
Maleki, M. H., Dalvand, H., Jahangirnia, H., and Safa, M. (2021). Identifying and Prioritizing 
Investment Risks in Sports Projects. Advances in Mathematical Finance and Applications. 
Nazam, M., Xu, J., Tao, Z., Ahmad, J., and Hashim, M. (2015). A fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS framework for 
the risk assessment of green supply chain implementation in the textile industry. International 
Journal of Supply and Operations Management, 2(1), 548–568. 
Nejadi, N., Ehsanifar, M., Khodadadi, H. (2020). Identifying, assessing and managing risk in oil and 
gas industry contracts. Third Conference on Industrial Engineering, Economics and Management. 
Ojoko, E. O., Tanko, B. L., Jibrin, M., Ojoko, O., and Enegbuma, W. L. (2016, August). Project delay 
causes and effects in the construction industry. In IGCESH. Proceedings of the 6th International 
Graduate Conference on Engineering, Science and Humanities, 15th (pp. 221–223). 
Park, K., Lee, H. W., Choi, K., and Lee, S. H. (2019). Project risk factors facing construction 
management firms. International Journal of Civil Engineering, 17(3), 305–321. 
Pourrostam, T. and Ismail, A. (2012). Causes and effects of delay in Iranian construction projects. 
International Journal of Engineering and Technology, 4(5), 598. 
Rashid, Y. (2020). Analysis of delay factors and their effects on construction projects. Management 
Science Letters, 10(6), 1197–1204. 
Ruqaishi, M. and Bashir, H. A. (2015). Causes of delay in construction projects in the oil and gas 
industry in the gulf cooperation council countries: a case study. Journal of Management in 
Engineering, 31(3), 05014017. 
Saini, N. and Khanduja, D. (2019). Financial performance evaluation using MADM approaches in 
Indian banks. In Advances in Interdisciplinary Engineering (pp. 439–449). Springer, Singapore. 
Salm, S. (2018). The investor-specific price of renewable energy project risk–A choice experiment with 
incumbent utilities and institutional investors. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 82, 
1364–1375. 
Sanni-Anibire, M. O., Zin, R. M., and Olatunji, S. O. (2020). Machine learning model for delay risk 
assessment in tall building projects. International Journal of Construction Management, 1–10. 
Silvius, G. (2018). Integrating sustainability into project risk management. In Global Business 
Expansion: Concepts, Methodologies, Tools, and Applications (pp. 330–352). IGI Global. 
Suppramaniam, S. U. K. and Ismail, S. (2018). Effects of Delay in Construction Phase of Oil and Gas 
Projects in Malaysia. Journal of Advanced Research in Business and Management Studies, 13(1), 
31–38. 
Sweet, J. and Schneier, M. M. (2013). Legal Aspects of Architecture, Engineering and the Construction 
Process. Construction Law International, 8(1), 43. 
Tahriri, F., Osman, M. R., Ali, A., Yusuff, R., and Esfandiary, A. (2008). AHP approach for supplier 
evaluation and selection in a steel manufacturing company. Journal of Industrial Engineering and 
Management (JIEM), 1(2), 54–76. 
Tang, G., Chiclana, F., Lin, X., and Liu, P. (2020). Interval type-2 fuzzy multi-attribute decision-making 
approaches for evaluating the service quality of Chinese commercial banks. Knowledge-Based 
Systems, 193, 105438. 
Taylan, O., Bafail, A. O., Abdulaal, R. M., and Kabli, M. R. (2014). Construction projects selection and 
risk assessment by fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS methodologies. Applied Soft Computing, 17, 
105–116. 
Tokdemir, O. B., Erol, H., and Dikmen, I. (2019). Delay risk assessment of repetitive construction 
projects using line-of-balance scheduling and Monte Carlo simulation. Journal of Construction 
Engineering and Management, 145(2), 04018132. 
110 Petroleum Business Review, Vol. 7 (2023), No. 3 
Vora, M., Sanni, S., and Flage, R. (2021). An environmental risk assessment framework for enhanced 
oil recovery solutions from offshore oil and gas industry. Environmental Impact Assessment 
Review, 88, 106512. 
Zhang, Y. (2016). Selecting risk response strategies considering project risk interdependence. 
International Journal of Project Management, 34(5), 819–830. 

  • Receive Date 26 January 2022
  • Revise Date 05 July 2023
  • Accept Date 08 July 2023