Naphtha Demand Modeling and Its Implications for Refining Configuration in the Era of Energy Transition
Volume 10, Issue 2, Spring 2026
https://doi.org/10.22050/pbr.2026.570861.1427
Afshar Bazyar, Saeid daneshi
Abstract In the context of the energy transition and increasingly stringent climate policies, understanding oil demand requires a product-specific perspective that goes beyond aggregate indicators. This study examines naphtha, a key feedstock linking the refining and petrochemical sectors, and analyzes the factors associated with its demand across ten major oil-consuming countries during 2000–2024. Using long-term panel data, naphtha prices are first modeled as a function of crude oil prices through an ARMA specification, after which a naphtha demand equation is estimated with cross-section fixed effects and a lagged dependent variable. The results indicate that naphtha demand is significantly associated with economic growth and downstream petrochemical product prices, especially olefins and aromatics. The positive and statistically significant lagged demand term suggests persistence and gradual adjustment in consumption, consistent with structural inertia in petrochemical feedstock use. Overall, the findings suggest that the energy transition may reshape the composition of oil demand rather than lead to a uniform decline across all petroleum products. The results provide policy-relevant insights for product-specific energy-transition strategies, refinery reconfiguration, and refinery–petrochemical integration, while underscoring that the estimated relationships should be interpreted as conditional associations rather than causal effects.
Presenting and explaining the job rotation implementation model based on the organization, methods and value chain of National Iranian Gas Company
Volume 7, Issue 3, Summer 2023, Pages 67-88
https://doi.org/10.22050/pbr.2023.369087.1284
Hossein Nasirnateri, Asadollah Mehrara, Mehrdad Matani
Abstract The purpose of job rotation policies is to create a talent pool for the organization along with mutual training of employees. Ensuring that a planned job transfer is beneficial to both the employee and the organization requires consideration of the organization and the company's value chain. The current research has been conducted with the aim of designing a job rotation implementation model based on the organization, methods, and value chain of Iran's National Gas Company. The qualitative research method is based on foundational data theorizing. Semi-structured interviews were used to collect information, and data analysis was done using the Strauss and Corbin method and the paradigm model. Sampling was done theoretically and with the benefit of targeted (judgmental) and snowball (chain) techniques, based on which 18 interviews were conducted with knowledgeable professors and experts in the field of human resource management and public administration. The results of the data analysis obtained from the interviews during the process of open, axial, and selective coding led to the creation of a job rotation implementation model based on the foundation's data theory including 6 main dimensions, 64 sub-dimensions, and 186 characteristics.
An Analysis of the Value Chains of the Petrochemical Industry With a Focus on the New Approach of Petro-Refinery
Volume 6, Issue 4, Autumn 2022, Pages 115-132
https://doi.org/10.22050/pbr.2023.365275.1283
Abdolhosein Bayat, Farhad Rahbar, Ali Vatani, Seyed Abdollah Razavi
Abstract As one of the mother industries, the petrochemical industry is one of the essential pillars of development and the driving engine of various sectors of the country’s economy. This industry will achieve several important goals, such as increasing export income, expanding downstream sectors, creating jobs, and increasing GDP. This importance has been emphasized in the country’s upstream documents, such as the general policies of the resistance economy, focusing on developing petroleum refineries to prevent the vulnerability of oil and gas revenues by extending the value chain and increasing the export of these products. The current work aims to investigate the value chain of the petrochemical industry with the new approach of petrochemical refineries, as well as the pathology and evaluation of the current state of the chains mentioned above in the country with the descriptive research method and the library method using policy research. The research results show that the chain of petrochemical products with the approach of creating petrochemical refineries has relatively high advantages compared to focusing on chains with the traditional method.
