Petroleum Business Review

Abstract The United States, recognized as the leading global producer and consumer of oil, significantly influences the dynamics of the international oil market. Therefore, changes in governments and their policies in the energy sector have a significant impact on the oil market, especially for oil-exporting countries like Iran. Hence, it is imperative to conduct an analytical assessment of the implications arising from the transition of political power in the United States on the global oil market dynamics. This study examines the implications of Trump's energy policies on the global petroleum market, focusing on Iran. The research employs a qualitative, descriptive-analytical method using desk research to explore how these policies impact Iran's oil exports, market share, and geopolitical standing. Under the Trump administration, the U.S. pursued an "energy dominance" agenda characterized by increased fossil fuel production, deregulation, and a confrontational stance towards OPEC. This neo- mercantilist approach aimed to bolster U.S. energy security and economic leverage. Trump’s Key policies include expanding fossil fuel production, lifting ecological restrictions, and promoting unilateralism in the oil and gas trade. This will likely lead to a decrease in oil prices in global markets, which will, in turn, result in reduced oil revenues for Iran and put pressure on its share. Additionally, Trump's policy of regional confrontation with Iran could also impact these outcomes.

Abstract Climate change is a global issue, driven largely by greenhouse gas emission, with carbon dioxide (CO2) being the biggest contributor. Iran, one of the top 10 emitters globally, faces unique challenges in reducing its CO2 emission due to economic sanctions, data gaps, and limited experience with climate policy. To help guide decision-makers, this study uses the Simplified DICE model—DICE model is a widely accepted tool for analyzing climate and economic interactions—to evaluate different strategies for emission reduction. These strategies mainly include carbon pricing, investment in renewables as mitigation of emission growth, and improving energy efficiency. The results show that such policies can positively impact GDP, temperature stabilization, and emission levels. This research provides the first numerical framework tailored to Iran’s specific context, offering practical insights for policymakers. Key policy implications include the necessity to overcome sanctions in aspects of Investment and technology absorption, improved data collection to refine future analyses, and adopting cost-effective measures that balance economic growth with environmental sustainability.

Abstract Iran, as an oil-dependent economy, has faced strict energy sanctions from the Western bloc, prompting the country to adopt policies aimed at enhancing energy economic resilience. Given the similarities in economic structure, this paper explores the concept of energy economic resilience in Russia under sanctions. Following Russia's special military operations in Ukraine, successive Western sanctions were imposed on Russia, primarily targeting its energy sector and global exports. This study aims to identify the key components affected by these sanctions by examining Russia’s energy security within a structured framework. The findings indicate that sanctions have had a negative impact on Russia's energy security and inflicted economic damage. However, Russia has demonstrated resilience in its energy sector by implementing strategic policies, such as diversifying oil and gas export destinations and strengthening energy transportation infrastructure through investment and new projects. Despite these successes, Russia remains highly dependent on fossil fuel extraction and exports, with limited progress in increasing the share of renewable energy, which remains a major weakness.

Abstract Iran’s latest risk service contract, known as the Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC), has been introduced to the international upstream market with the aim of attracting foreign investment in the country’s oil and gas sector. Several terms and conditions distinguish the IPC from the previous Iranian upstream oil and gas contract, the buyback contract. The objective of this investigation is to examine the legal implications of signing contracts in Iran, as well as the contractual terms and conditions of a signed contract in the Cheshmeh Khosh field. This study offers valuable insights into the potential hazards of the IPCs from the perspective of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) by providing realistic information about the IPC and utilizing qualitative methods such as library and documentary research. Moreover, it is designed to assist the NIOC in effectively responding to and monitoring these risks, thereby promoting investment in the development of Iran’s oil and gas initiatives and protecting the national interest of Iran.

Abstract Many organizations in the power and energy sector rely on research and development (R&D) projects to achieve their strategic goals. Given the simultaneous execution of multiple projects, managing R&D portfolios effectively has become an essential capability for adapting to environmental changes and maintaining competitive advantage. This study aims to present a model that identifies and prioritizes the factors influencing R&D portfolio management in the energy sector. Employing a mixed-method approach, the research integrates qualitative data collected through interviews with fifteen experts in the energy sector—analyzed using grounded theory via MAXQDA 2020—with quantitative data from 134 managers and experts, analyzed using Smart PLS V.3. In the qualitative phase, 105 codes were categorized into six dimensions, with 17 codes excluded during factor analysis, resulting in a validated model comprising 88 codes across six dimensions. The proposed model emphasizes critical factors such as project selection, project evaluation, project definition, budget allocation, portfolio analysis, and addressing challenges in portfolio integration. By balancing these dimensions, the model aims to reduce risks, optimize resource allocation, and enhance the probability of commercial success for R&D projects. This study offers new insights into R&D portfolio management in the Iranian energy industry, addressing the unique challenges of this sector. It provides a systematic framework for selecting, evaluating, and balancing R&D projects while aligning with organizational strategies to ensure the effective commercialization of research outcomes. The findings also stress the importance of integrating local investment in R&D to drive technological innovation and sustainable economic development in the energy sector.

Abstract In this paper, the competitive market of crude oil exports of Iran and the world is modeled using game theory. In the present research, we have focused on OPEC's internal competition within the game theory framework to analyze the economic conflicts between OPEC members in detail. In the conditions where each of the producers has their own goals and limitations, the amount of access to the desired goals for each producer depends not only on the decisions they make, but also is affected by the prevailing atmosphere in the oil market, including the strategy of other competitors, sanctions, and different situations of economic growth and oil sale price level. In recent years, Western countries, especially the United States, have imposed extensive sanctions against Iran, mainly targeting. In this regard, three players of Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United States of America (USA) were defined and a model for the game between them was presented. Then the presented model was solved as a cooperative game and the equilibrium point was obtained for it. The results obtained showed that the three main players have the conditions for cooperation by choosing the options of "reducing pressure and fewer sanctions", "reducing pressure and cooperation", and "cooperation", and Iran can only improve its conditions by competing with Saudi Arabia in OPEC.