Quarterly Publication

Assessing the Influence of Trump's Energy Agenda on Global Oil Dynamics and Iran's Oil Sector

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Economics, Razavi University of Islamic Sciences, Mashhad, Iran

2 Ph.D. Candidate, Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan , Zahedan, Iran

Abstract
The United States, recognized as the leading global producer and consumer of oil, significantly influences the dynamics of the international oil market. Therefore, changes in governments and their policies in the energy sector have a significant impact on the oil market, especially for oil-exporting countries like Iran. Hence, it is imperative to conduct an analytical assessment of the implications arising from the transition of political power in the United States on the global oil market dynamics. This study examines the implications of Trump's energy policies on the global petroleum market, focusing on Iran. The research employs a qualitative, descriptive-analytical method using desk research to explore how these policies impact Iran's oil exports, market share, and geopolitical standing. Under the Trump administration, the U.S. pursued an "energy dominance" agenda characterized by increased fossil fuel production, deregulation, and a confrontational stance towards OPEC. This neo- mercantilist approach aimed to bolster U.S. energy security and economic leverage. Trump’s Key policies include expanding fossil fuel production, lifting ecological restrictions, and promoting unilateralism in the oil and gas trade. This will likely lead to a decrease in oil prices in global markets, which will, in turn, result in reduced oil revenues for Iran and put pressure on its share. Additionally, Trump's policy of regional confrontation with Iran could also impact these outcomes.

Highlights

·      Analyzes how Trump’s “energy dominance” agenda—characterized by increased fossil fuel production and deregulation—contrasts with Biden’s multilateral trade approach and its subsequent impact on global oil markets.

·      Examines the neo-mercantilist framework of Trump’s energy policy, which prioritized domestic production, energy independence, and the rollback of environmental regulations.

·      Explores the specific consequences for Iran’s energy sector, detailing how U.S. sanctions and increased American oil production curtailed Iran’s exports, diminished its global market share, and undermined its economic stability.

Provides insight into the potential future implications of a resumed Trump-era energy policy, particularly regarding global climate goals, international oil price stability, and shifting geopolitical power dynamics within energy markets

Keywords

Subjects

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  • Receive Date 18 January 2025
  • Revise Date 10 February 2025
  • Accept Date 17 February 2025