Investigating the Reasons behind the Failure of Iran’s Gas Export through LNG Employing the Fuzzy Delphi Method

Rahbar, Mohammad; Dashab, Mehryar; Ameri, Faysal; Emami Meibodi, Ali

doi:10.22050/pbr.2022.308708.1229

Investigating the Reasons behind the Failure of Iran’s Gas Export through LNG Employing the Fuzzy Delphi Method

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Mohammad Rahbar ¹

Mehryar Dashab ²

faysal ameri ³

Ali Emami Meibodi ⁴

¹ 1Ph.D. Degree in International Oil and Gas Contract Management, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran

² Assistant Professor, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran

³ Associate Professor of Faculty of Law and Political, Science, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran

⁴ Department of Energy Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran

https://doi.org/10.22050/pbr.2022.308708.1229

Abstract

In the 2000s, some projects were defined to export Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) in order to increase Iran’s presence in gas export markets.
However, despite the initial planning until 2020, when this research was conducted, none led to a result, and Iran could not play a role in this market. Delay in executing these plans will lead to losing the opportunity to use the joint South Pars field and billions of dollars of foreign exchange earnings. The purpose of this study, which was conducted 2019 to 2020, is to identify the factors leading to the failure of Iran’s LNG projects. In order to identify and prioritize these factors, the opinion of experts and the Fuzzy Delphi technique is employed.
Investigating the condition at the national and international level indicates that some factors have prevented all of these projects from being successful, including political issues, international sanctions on Iran, lack of domestic capital, lack of appropriate foundation for attracting foreign investors, constraints of domestic rules and regulations, especially in the upstream sector for choosing the contract format, not having access to the liquefaction technology, and the issues pertinent to marketing, and the most important one, lack of suitable commercial structural design. Identifying these factors and planning for tackling them is the key to escaping this current situation and a guide for prospering in future projects of the country.

Keywords

Foreign investment

Fuzzy delphi

Liquefaction technology

Sanctions

Upstream and downstream rules

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