Quarterly Publication

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor in International Relations, Allameh Tabataba`i University, Tehran, Iran

2 Ph.D Candidate, International Relations from Allameh Tabataba'i University.

3 Researcher in the Political Economy of Energy and the Environment

4 Associate Professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University (New Delhi, India) in International Studies, Faculty Member at the University of Afghanistan in Kabul

Abstract

Currently, the global community is on the threshold of a transition from fossil fuels as a result of transformations such as climate change, entailing the strict implementation of carbon setoff policies and quick progress in green technologies. A transition to clean, low-carbon energies will not only disrupt the global energy system, it will also impact the global economy and political dynamism within and without all states. Based on these transformations, the present article asks the question of how the energy transition will impact the geopolitical future of the global oil economy. The authors hypothesize the following in answer to this question: Given the superior, more advanced position of economic powers such as China and the US in clean energy technologies, we are likely to witness the weakening of traditional oil powers in a post-carbon world, such as the Middle East and North African countries (MENA) and Russia; in contrast, the balance of power will tilt heavily towards current energy consumers. Technology-savvy countries have the knowledge to reproduce and stabilize their power in the global economy. The traditional countries of the energy sector, however, face shortfalls in their infrastructure and modern technologies and will lose their geopolitical position to a large extent.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Arabia, S. (2016). Saudi Arabia Vision 2030. Gazette, Riyadh Tuesday, 26.
Looney, B. (2020). Statistical Review of World Energy, 2020|.
Breznitz, D. (2007). Innovation and the state: Political choice and strategies for growth in Israel, Taiwan, and Ireland. Yale University Press.
China’s Solar panel (2019). “China's solar panel makers’ top global field but challenges loom”. Retrieved from: https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-trends/China-s-solar-panel-makers-top-global-field-but-challenges-loom.
Economics, T. (2018). Russia GDP growth rate. Trading Economics. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp-growth.
Energy Information Administration (2019) Annual energy outlook 2019. https://www.eia.gov/ outlooks/aeo/. Accessed 26 June 2019.
outlooks/aeo/. Accessed 26 June 2019.
Eyl-Mazzega, M. A., & Mathieu, C. (2020). The European Union and the Energy Transition. In The Geopolitics of the Global Energy Transition (pp. 27-46). Springer, Cham.
Eyl-Mazzega, M. A., & Mathieu, C. (2020). The European Union and the Energy Transition. In The Geopolitics of the Global Energy Transition (pp. 27-46). Springer, Cham.
Hafner, M., & Tagliapietra, S. (2020). The geopolitics of the global energy transition.
Hafner, M., & Raimondi, P. P. (2020). Priorities and challenges of the EU energy transition: From the European Green Package to the new Green Deal. Russian Journal of Economics, 6, 374.
Henderson, J., & Mitrova, T. (2020). Implications of the Global Energy Transition on Russia. In The Geopolitics of the Global Energy Transition (pp. 93-114). Springer, Cham.
International Monetary Fund (2019). “Saudi Arabia: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report No. 19/291”. Retrieved from: http://www.imf.org/.
IRENA (2019) Patents evolution of renewable energy. http://resourceirena.irena.org
IRENA, O., & DESA, U. (2019). A New World: The Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation.
Makarov, A. A., Mitrova, T. A., & Kulagin, V. A. (2019). Global and Russian energy outlook 2019. Moscow: Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO. Accessed May, 19, 2020.
Makarov, A. A., Mitrova, T. A., & Kulagin, V. A. (2019). Global and Russian energy outlook 2019. Moscow: Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO. Accessed May, 19, 2020.
Makarov, I., Chen, Y. H. H., & Paltsev, S. (2017). Finding itself in the post-Paris world: Russia in the new global energy landscape.
Mills, R. (2020). A Fine Balance: The Geopolitics of the Global Energy Transition in MENA. In The Geopolitics of the Global Energy Transition (pp. 115-150). Springer, Cham.
Mitrova, T. (2016). Russian energy outlook. Encyclopedia of mineral and energy policy, edited by G. Tiess, T. Hamdi, and P. Cameron, 1-12.
Mottaghi, M. (2019). Futures of Iran’s oil and gas; scenarios by 2035. Petroleum Business Review, 3(4), 63-86.
REN21 (2015): Renewables 2015 Global Status Report, Key Findings, Retrieved from: http:// www. ren21. net/status-of-renewables/global-status-report› [Retrieved from: 10/2/2015].
Renewables Increasingly Beat (2020). “Renewables Increasingly Beat Even Cheapest Coal Competitors on Cost Tweet”. Retrieved from: https://www.irena.org/newsroom/pressreleases/2020/Jun/Renewables-Increasingly-Beat-Even-Cheapest-Coal-Competitors-on-Cost.
Shokri, M., & Esmaeili Ardakani, A. (2019). The Geopolitical Future of the Oil Market in the Shadow of US Sanctions Policy. Petroleum Business Review, 3(3), 17-27.
Sönnichsen, N. (2020). “Renewable energy capacity - country ranking 2019”, Retrieved from: https://www.statista.com/statistics/267233/renewable-energy-capacity-worldwide-by-country/#statisticContainer.
Strange, S. (2015). States and markets. Bloomsbury Publishing.
Tagliapietra, S. (2019). “The geopolitical implications of the global energy transition”. Retrieved from: https://www.bruegel.org/2019/03/the-geopolitical-implications-of-the-global-energy-transition/.
Tynkkynen, V. P., Pynnöniemi, K. P., & Höysniemi, S. H. (2017). Global energy transitions and Russia’s energy influence in Finland.
U.S. renewable energy consumption. (2019). US Energy Information Administration Monthly Energy Review. Retrieved from https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43895.
Voita, T. (2019). Going green. Are Chinese Cities Planting the Seeds for Sustainable Energy Systems?
Yergin, D. (2020). The New Geopolitics of Energy. The Wall Street Journal, Retrieved from: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-new-geopolitics-of-energy-11599836521
EU 2030 (2020). “EU 2030 climate & energy framework”. Retrieved from: EU 2030 climate & energy.
Power Technology (2018). “Is Russia finally ready to embrace renewable energy?” Retrieved from: https://www.powertechnology.com/features/russia-renewable-energy/ Accessed 17 November 2019.