Petroleum Business Review

Abstract The exchange rate in Iran’s economy, is one of the most critical indicators influencing fiscal, trade, and monetary policymaking. Given that a substantial portion of the country’s foreign exchange earnings is dependent on crude oil exports, any fluctuations in oil revenues can directly or indirectly affect the exchange rate. This relationship becomes especially significant under circumstances such as international sanctions, global oil price volatility, and the structural dependency of the government budget on oil revenues. Consequently, a precise understanding of the mechanisms by which oil income influences the exchange rate is essential for designing sustainable currency policies and ensuring the country’s macroeconomic stability. The present study investigates the long-term relationship between oil revenues and the exchange rate in Iran during the years 2002 to 2024, utilizing the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) econometric method. Through the analysis of quarterly time series data and unit root tests, the stationarity and then cointegration of the variables were examined. The test results indicate that the variables are integrated of order one, and a cointegration relationship exists among them, justifying the estimation of the model using FMOLS.The findings reveal that, according to the model estimates, oil revenues and non-oil exports exert a significant negative effect on the exchange rate. Specifically, a one-percent increase in oil revenues leads to a 0.41 percent decrease in the exchange rate (signifying an appreciation of the Rial), while an increase in non-oil exports results in a 0.72 percent decrease in the exchange rate.

Abstract The Iranian economy is intensely affected by the size of the government and oil income. Oil incomes might influence the relationship between inflation and government size since financing the budget in Iran is based to a significant degree on oil revenues. Due to the significance of government size and oil income on the price level, the oil revenue-government size-inflation nexus in Iran during the period 1991-2021 is considered. Estimation results of a Markov switching model recommend that government size incorporates a significant positive affect on inflation. Moreover, the growth of oil income is found to have a significant negative affect on the inflation. Based on the findings, it appears that there are two regimes being considered: Regime 1, which represents a high inflation regime, and Regime 2, which represents a low inflation regime. Our findings suggest that once in the low inflation regime (Regime 2), there is a moderate chance of remaining in that state. However, if initially in the high inflation regime (Regime 1), there is a higher probability of staying in that state and a lower probability of transitioning to the low inflation regime.

Abstract The present paper is meant to answer the question: How fluctuation in economic growth rate increased the risk of instability in Iran in the Post-JCPOA? In response and based on reliable data and taking a political economy approach, it is hypothesized that the high fluctuations in the economic growth rate associated with JCPOA has led to the political instability through deepening and intensification of expectations gap. To do so and using a comparative method, a number of factors associated with calculating modes of added value (sub-sectors including agriculture, oil, industry and mining, and ) as well as international indicators affecting the economic growth are analyzed in the two time spans of pre and post JCPOA. For further validity, reference is made to the results of some polls conducted by some credible institutes. The findings show that the sudden rise and fall of the economic growth rate due to oil revenues after the agreement turned the hope created in the context of the expected gap formed by the promises of the agreement into disappointment; and paved the way for street unrests