Oil and Gas Economics and Management
Pedram Edalat; Gholam Reza Salehi; Shahab Shahriari
Abstract
The economics of two different power generation systems for an offshore complex installed in the Persian Gulf is considered. The base case defines the present condition in which the total power demand of the complex is supplied by burning the associated natural gas extracted from the platform on board ...
Read More
The economics of two different power generation systems for an offshore complex installed in the Persian Gulf is considered. The base case defines the present condition in which the total power demand of the complex is supplied by burning the associated natural gas extracted from the platform on board in its thermal power plant. The purposed scenario considers a wind farm located near Bardekhun in Bushehr province to be connected to the complex power network and shares its power generated by renewable resources with the platform. The average wind speed and the wind turbine power generation are considered to have uncertainty. Thus, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is used to consider the uncertainties in the average wind speed and the wind turbine power generation. The purposed scenario is found obviously more beneficial with some conservative assumptions. The results show an about 30% reduction in pollution and a profit of $3 million in a year
Oil and Gas Economics and Management
Mansoureh Ram; Atefeh Taklif; Ali Faridzad
Abstract
The liberalization of natural gas markets and the emergence of gas hubs in recent decades have shifted the natural gas trade from the regional to the global trade. The growth and maturity of these hubs have weakened the previously established relationship between the natural gas price and the prices ...
Read More
The liberalization of natural gas markets and the emergence of gas hubs in recent decades have shifted the natural gas trade from the regional to the global trade. The growth and maturity of these hubs have weakened the previously established relationship between the natural gas price and the prices of crude oil and petroleum products. Therefore, predicting the price of gas as a strategic commodity has become more important for different countries. Using the neural network method, this paper attempts to develop a model of the monthly prediction of natural gas price. Based on the time series data from 2012 to April 2019 as the input to the neural network, this model predicts the prices in five hubs and natural gas exchange centers in Europe. Based on the R2 performance evaluation index of 98% of the neural network model fitted based on the aforementioned data series, the neural network model has acceptable performance in predicting the natural gas price. The results of this study show that using the artificial neural network (ANN) method, the gas prices in the European gas hubs, which are located in European countries, can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy.
Oil and Gas Economics and Management
Azadeh Dabbaghi; Maryam Dehghan
Abstract
Strategic management contexts usually define a couple of activities, including preparing a mission statement, which is one of the essential parts in developing the strategic plan of an organization. Numerous researches in the strategic management literature have expressed the attributes of an effectively ...
Read More
Strategic management contexts usually define a couple of activities, including preparing a mission statement, which is one of the essential parts in developing the strategic plan of an organization. Numerous researches in the strategic management literature have expressed the attributes of an effectively written mission statement for a firm in general. Although the corporate mission statement and its components vary from industry to industry, none of the researchers have specifically studied the components of a corporate mission statement in the petroleum industry. In this study, the general components of the corporate mission statement were extracted and listed based on the literature review of strategic management. Then, the most important components of the corporate mission statement specific to the petroleum industry were selected using the industry experts’ opinions. The grey systems theory was utilized to aggregate the expert judgments that are qualitative in nature. Fourteen components of corporate mission statement in the petroleum industry were selected as the research results. Whether developing a new business or reformulating direction for an ongoing company in the petroleum industry, these specific components should be included in the content of the corporate mission statement.
Oil and Gas Economics and Management
Mohammad Tavakkoli Mohammadi; Abbas Alimoradi; Mohsen Sarvi
Abstract
The research on the Markowitz model and optimization of its portfolio using a variety of evaluation indicators and metaheuristic-algorithms has always been the focus of attention of accounting and finance researchers. The results of studies carried out by various types of optimization method are different ...
Read More
The research on the Markowitz model and optimization of its portfolio using a variety of evaluation indicators and metaheuristic-algorithms has always been the focus of attention of accounting and finance researchers. The results of studies carried out by various types of optimization method are different in the Markowitz modified models. The purpose of this study is to measure the optimal portfolio and its corresponding return with respect to the portfolio in the traditional Markowitz model as well as comparing the position of the refining and petrochemical companies versus stock market outperformers through integrating the operational criteria and the new indicators of liquidity by using the genetic algorithm in the Markowitz model. Therefore, financial data related to the research variables of 35 cases of refinery and petrochemical companies listed on Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) from 2012 to 2016 fiscal years were extracted from Rahavard Novin database software and simulated by the genetic algorithm. The results show that returns on the stock portfolios optimized using the genetic algorithm without considering the liquidity limitations and filters are significantly and positively different from the returns on the stock portfolios optimized with regarding the liquidity limitations and filters. Furthermore, the application of liquidity limitations and filters to the formation of the optimal stock portfolios leads to a conservative increase in the choice of stocks (portfolio formation), which results in a reduction in the risk and return of investment in such portfolios.
Oil and Gas Economics and Management
Mohammad Reza Shokouhi; Mohammad Reza Moniri; Behnaz Shahheidar
Abstract
Companies need to exactly manage their assets to balance performance, risk, and cost. The ability of equipment to provide a certain level of performance is influenced by its design, utilization, deterioration, and life. On the other hand, in order to obtain the desired level of performance and reduce ...
Read More
Companies need to exactly manage their assets to balance performance, risk, and cost. The ability of equipment to provide a certain level of performance is influenced by its design, utilization, deterioration, and life. On the other hand, in order to obtain the desired level of performance and reduce risk, proper planning of maintenance activities during the period must be done. To manage this issue, organizations must develop a suitable method for their assets from the acquisition stage to the disposal to obtain the required processes and, ultimately, to earn the desired profit. In this study, petroleum pipelines have been considered as a case study, and life cycle cost (LCC), risk, and key performance indicators (KPI) have been identified as the criteria for decision making. KPI is itself composed of three sub criteria, including reliability, availability, and maintainability. They are weighted by using the opinions of eight expert and DANP method. The final weights of LCC, risk, and KPI (reliability, availability, and maintainability) are 0.269, 0.301, and 0.429 respectively. Considering different strategies in each phase of the asset life cycle, different scenarios are described for the asset life cycle as follows: 1) RCM-replacement, 2) RCM-overhaul, 3) CBM-replacement, 4) CBM-overhaul, 5) TPM-replacement, and 6) TPM-overhaul. Finally, based on the gained experts’ viewpoint from questionnaire and MOORA technique to rank the scenarios, the desired scenario, namely Buy-TPM-Replacement, is selected. Due to the use of experts’ opinions, these results will vary with the change of people, and due to the lack of relevant data, it is not possible to avoid this issue.
Oil and Gas Economics and Management
Ameneh Nadalizadeh; Kambiz Kiani; Shamseddin Hoseini; Kambiz Peykarjou
Abstract
It is generally believed that macroeconomic and financial performance in oil exporting countries is interlinked to oil price movements. Regarding that assumption, the present study aims to examine the impact of oil price movements on bank nonperforming loans (NPLs) ,as a criterion for evaluation of bank ...
Read More
It is generally believed that macroeconomic and financial performance in oil exporting countries is interlinked to oil price movements. Regarding that assumption, the present study aims to examine the impact of oil price movements on bank nonperforming loans (NPLs) ,as a criterion for evaluation of bank credit risk, by applying the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) on data from 18 Iranian banks data over period 2006–2017. The result of the estimated model indicates that there is a significant relation between fluctuations of oil price and bank nonperforming loans; accordingly, any decrease in the price of oil will result in an increase in bank nonperforming loans. Also, in order to have comprehensive assessment, economic and bank specific control variables were used in the model. Findings show that the NPLs ratio increases as economic growth decreases and exchange rate and real interest rates rise. Among bank specific factors, equity ratio as a criterion for efficiency and loan growth has a negative effect on NPLs, but by raising bank industry concentration, credit risk and financial stability can be threatened. Thus, the reliance of oil rich economies on oil incomes leads to the linkage of oil prices, and macroeconomic and financial performance. Therefore, the result of this study will be useful in adapting and diversifying macroeconomic policies in the face of drastic changes in oil prices and mitigating its adverse effects.
Oil and Gas Economics and Management
Mahdi Rostami; Asghar Mirmohammadtabar; Nader Dashti
Abstract
This study aimed to evaluate the effects of environmental policies including price and non-price policies on natural gas demand in Iranian industrial sector. For this purpose, considering the dynamic nature of our panel data, we adopted Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) method to estimate natural gas ...
Read More
This study aimed to evaluate the effects of environmental policies including price and non-price policies on natural gas demand in Iranian industrial sector. For this purpose, considering the dynamic nature of our panel data, we adopted Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) method to estimate natural gas consumption for 22 Iranian industries from 2005 to 2015. The results illustrated that the annual average of natural gas consumption has been rising, reaching five times higher than the consumption of other fossil fuels. Among the industries, other non-metallic minerals industry with 8 percent of the total production and more than 25 percent natural gas consumption have been regarded as the most natural gas consumer industry. The results of our GMM model showed that non-price environmental policies are more effective than the price policies on natural gas consumption. Overall, in non-price policies, energy intensity seems more important comparing to CO2 emission reduction. We recommend that governmental energy policies should focus more on energy intensity improvement in Iranian industries through technological enhancement and fuel energy saving regulations.
Oil and Gas Economics and Management
Asghar Mir-Mohammad Tabar; Asgar Khademvatani; Vahid Mohammadi; Hamid Reza Hosseinimehr
Abstract
Expanding use of renewable energies (RE) around the world is a critical mission to reach to global environmental policies. Largest share of global energy mix relates to deployable and carbon-intensive fossil fuels. So, it is necessary to create proper incentives for investors to invest in RE in order ...
Read More
Expanding use of renewable energies (RE) around the world is a critical mission to reach to global environmental policies. Largest share of global energy mix relates to deployable and carbon-intensive fossil fuels. So, it is necessary to create proper incentives for investors to invest in RE in order to move toward low carbon economy. In this regard, one of the implemented policies is imposing tax on using deployable energies which includes tax on both energy consumption and motor vehicle transportation. This paper investigates impact of environmental tax policy on investors’ behavior for 13 leading selected developed and developing countries during the period 2004-2016. Based on economic theory, investment, particularly in capital-intensive energy industries would have a long gestation period. To capture this feature and evaluate dynamic relations of investments in RE, a partial-adjustment dynamic model is applied and estimated using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) method. The results show that imposing tax on fossil fuel energy consumption and transportation systems, in particular that use fossil fuels, has a significant negative and positive impact on investing in RE, respectively. Also, empirical results demonstrate that there is a significant negative relation between interest rate (IR) and Investments in Renewable Energies (IRE).
Oil and Gas Economics and Management
Mohammad Ali Hatefi; Naser Mozhdekanloo
Abstract
Since a large number of the oil and gas projects are related to the supply chain, the selection of contractors and suppliers is very important. In projects, a contractor is obliged to supply the goods from suppliers and manufacturers approved by the clients, while most companies in Iran, including the ...
Read More
Since a large number of the oil and gas projects are related to the supply chain, the selection of contractors and suppliers is very important. In projects, a contractor is obliged to supply the goods from suppliers and manufacturers approved by the clients, while most companies in Iran, including the company surveyed in this research, i.e. Iranian Offshore Engineering and Construction Company (IOEC, do not have a scientific approach to this issue). The main objective of this research is providing a scientific and practical approach to ranking suppliers and contractors at IOEC and selecting the best ones. In order to achieve such an objective, an integrated model of Swing and TOPSIS methods with fuzzy approach has been designed and applied to a real case. The actual data used are obtained from the post-lay survey of the exports and infield pipelines of South Pars development phases 13, 14, and 22. Keywords: Supplier Selection, multi attribute decision making (MADM), Oil and Gas, IOEC, Swing, Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), Fuzzy, Pipelines
Oil and Gas Economics and Management
Seyyed Abdollah Razavi; Iman Mohamadali Tajrishi
Abstract
For every organizational and project activity, decisions should be made to delegate necessary resources. The objective of the current paper is to assist the oil and gas managers in aligning each functional level of strategy to make decisions on resource delegation. This can be conducted by creating ...
Read More
For every organizational and project activity, decisions should be made to delegate necessary resources. The objective of the current paper is to assist the oil and gas managers in aligning each functional level of strategy to make decisions on resource delegation. This can be conducted by creating a synergy which increases organizational performance. The methodology used in this research is based on a case study on Iran’s South Pars oil and gas zone. The purpose of the present work is to find the alignment pattern classified on social structuralism domain. This study is explanatory, qualitative, and developmental since it applies the fuzzy set theory to measurements. Presented herein is a comprehensive model according to the systematic and scientific approaches in the field of management. The main purpose of this model is to create organizational strategy alignment in severe environmental conditions and in the presence of external economic sanctions in South Pars oil and gas projects. The statistical society included in this study were the managers and CEO’s who had in-depth experience in South Pars projects for more than five years. Since the number of the managers were 43, the possibility of data gathering allowed for not using the sample size. The results show that by increasing strategic alignment (SA) among strategy functions, structure, human resource, and technology, the level of organizational performance rises, and the fuzzy model of SA leads to better statement reality.
Oil and Gas Economics and Management
Mohammad Ali Motafakker Aazad; Reza Ranjpour; Mohsen Pourebadolahan; Mehdi Asali; Seied Taher Partovi Alanagh
Abstract
Currently, distribution of various types of petroleum products is performed exclusively by the government. The high price of land in metropolitan cities, lack of incentive for the private sector to invest in construction of filling station due to the low-income, have caused filling stations to be insufficiently ...
Read More
Currently, distribution of various types of petroleum products is performed exclusively by the government. The high price of land in metropolitan cities, lack of incentive for the private sector to invest in construction of filling station due to the low-income, have caused filling stations to be insufficiently available. One of the solutions to overcome this obstacle is to use the ability of the private sector for distribution of petroleum products. To reduce the government's ownership, the market structure for petroleum products distribution in the country needs to be changed. This change should be firstly done gradually and step by step, and secondly, the government has to monitor this issue at various stages. In this study, three stages are proposed for the market restructuring of the petroleum products distribution in the country, and the conditions and requirements for each stage are separately identified. For the private fuel distributing companies, the most important problem is the economic issue and having profit. On the other hand, since the product price is still subsidized in the country, therefore, it is indispensable that the amount of commission fee should be determined in such a way that the activity for private companies is economically justified. In this study, the amount of products commision fee is calculated concerning capital and operatational expenditures, using the engineering economics method in different situations by COMFAR version 3 software.
Oil and Gas Economics and Management
Mohammad Reza Shokouhi; Mohsen Beheshti; Kamran Fatahi; Abdolsamad Rahmati
Abstract
As projects increase in size and complexity, they become more difficult to handle. One of these large and complex projects is oil and gas projects. The current controlling processes of projects are not able to detect the problems in early phases of the project and are rather late leading to extra time ...
Read More
As projects increase in size and complexity, they become more difficult to handle. One of these large and complex projects is oil and gas projects. The current controlling processes of projects are not able to detect the problems in early phases of the project and are rather late leading to extra time and cost. One solution is to find symptoms of problems in the early phases. Due to the importance of drilling projects in upstream sector, the main objective of this research is to identify the early warning symptoms of problems in drilling projects and to find the relationships between selected early warnings with project outcomes and problems of these projects. To reach that aim, the early warnings have been recognized through literature review and interviews with experts. Then, case study analysis is performed to find the relationships between early warnings and project outcomes. All cases have been selected from previous completed drilling projects in one of the oil fields of Iran. Findings show that there is a relationship between early warnings, project outcomes and projects problems.