Petroleum Business Review

Abstract The Strait of Hormuz, as one of the world’s most strategic energy chokepoints, plays a vital role in the maritime trade of crude oil and natural gas, and many Asian economies are heavily dependent on it. Following the onset of the 2026 tensions and conflicts, vessel traffic in the strait has sharply declined, with more than 95% of shipping flows disrupted. Daily vessel crossings have dropped from several per day to nearly zero, with only a few limited transits permitted under special authorization. The absence of effective alternative routes—especially for countries reliant on energy exports through this passage—has placed significant pressure on global markets and heightened concerns about the stability of supply. Under such circumstances, Asian markets, the primary destination for oil and gas passing through Hormuz, face the greatest vulnerability. If this situation persists, rising transportation costs and escalating geopolitical risks could seriously challenge the stability of the global energy market. The geopolitical importance of the strait means that any disruption extends far beyond the region, producing immediate consequences for energy and financial markets as well as national economies. For energy exporters, this results in reduced foreign‑exchange revenues, while energy importers face higher costs, inflationary pressures, and slower economic growth. Utilizing an analytical–descriptive approach and a multilayer scenario‑building framework