Oil and Gas Economics and Management
Hamid Reza Modiri; Marjan Daman keshideh; Hooshang Momeni; Amirreza Keyghobadi; Ali Esmailzadeh Maghari
Abstract
This study was conducted to determine the effect of the asymmetric oil price shock, tax revenues, resource curse, stock market, and business cycles of Iran by using the structural vector auto regression model (SVAR) for the 1984-2018 period. According to results of the estimated SVAR model, an impulse ...
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This study was conducted to determine the effect of the asymmetric oil price shock, tax revenues, resource curse, stock market, and business cycles of Iran by using the structural vector auto regression model (SVAR) for the 1984-2018 period. According to results of the estimated SVAR model, an impulse imposed by the duration of sanctions on oil exports led to an 89% increase in production gap, and impulses caused by liquidity and stock price led to 86% and 53% rises in production gap, respectively. Variation in oil and foreign exchange earnings results in different and even conflicting changes in foreign and domestic sectors of the economy, which subsequently affect the economic performance positively or negatively. Regarding economic structure and principles, a constant increased exchange rate leads to economic growth while a cross-sectional increment in exchange rate does not lead to any economic prosperity. Increased exchange rate and decreased domestic money weakness will increase foreign debt, which in turn causes liquidity shortage. Overall, the liquidity shortage of economic firms has a negative impact on the return of stock and business cycles. Hence, policymakers must pay considerable attention to macroeconomic indicators.
Oil and Gas Economics and Management
Parastoo Boroomandfar; Alireza Daghighi Asli; Azadeh Mehrabian; Marjan Damankeshideh
Abstract
This paper analyzes the existence of an asymmetric causality relationship between the consumption of hydrocarbon products in four sectors: residential-commercial, manufacturing, agricultural, and transportation, and the economic growth of Iran during the years 1981-2017. To achieve this goal, the effect ...
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This paper analyzes the existence of an asymmetric causality relationship between the consumption of hydrocarbon products in four sectors: residential-commercial, manufacturing, agricultural, and transportation, and the economic growth of Iran during the years 1981-2017. To achieve this goal, the effect of positive and negative shocks of the mentioned variables is investigated using the asymmetric causality approach of Hatemi-J (2012). Research results suggest a two-way causal relationship between the positive shocks of economic growth and the consumption of carriers of hydrocarbons in all four residential-commercial, manufacturing, agricultural and transportation sectors. There is a two-way causal relationship between negative economic growth shocks and hydrocarbon carriers’ consumption in agriculture and transportation, and a one-way causal relationship between hydrocarbon energy carriers’ consumption and economic growth in the residential-commercial and industrial sectors. There is no causal relationship between non-directional shocks of hydrocarbon consumption and economic growth.
