Petroleum Business Review

Abstract This study conducts a comprehensive examination of the interlinkages among four key financial markets—crude oil, gold, currency, and equities—over the July 23, 2013, to March 12, 2025. This study employs the Contemporaneous and Lagged R2 Decomposed connectedness approach recently introduced by Balli et al. (2023), which allows us to decompose the connectedness among variables into lagged and contemporaneous components. As the previous approaches only show overall or contemporary results, this novel approach fills the gap in the literature. The findings reveal that most spillovers occur contemporaneously, with the U.S. dollar playing a central role in the propagation of contemporaneous shocks. In contrast, gold emerges as a significant transmitter of long-term shocks, underscoring its relevance for strategic risk management. Moreover, crude oil is the main receiver of shocks in the average and lagged connectedness in the network. Dynamic analyses indicate heightened market sensitivity during periods of geopolitical tension, particularly under intensified sanctions and currency volatility in Iran. By uncovering the evolving structure of cross-market dependencies, this research offers valuable insights for portfolio allocation, systemic risk assessment, and the formulation of responsive economic policies in times of financial stress.

Abstract The economic evaluation of oil and gas projects aims to provide decision-makers with a comprehensive estimate of costs and benefits. This study examines the impact of macroeconomic variables, such as interest and inflation rates, on the economic assessment of drilling several gas wells in northeastern Iran. The theoretical framework includes Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Payback Period (PP). The importance of accurately predicting these variables for economic decision-making by managers and policymakers is clearly established, with their analysis playing a key role in project evaluation. In this study, the planning of activities and analysis of the construction and operational phases of the project were first conducted. The inflation rate was forecasted using the ARIMA model, and an appropriate discount rate was determined. The pricing of gas and condensates, fixed and variable costs, and project revenues were also reviewed. The economic evaluation was performed using COMFAR software, with a sensitivity analysis to examine the impact of changes in key assumptions. The results indicate positive financial metrics for the project under different production rates, discount rates, inflation rates, and various energy prices, confirming the project's economic viability.