Examining the National Development Fund's Investment Model in Upstream Oil & Gas Industries with Emphasis on Field Development Risks

Javadi, Ali; Kazemi Najafabadi, Abbas; Rahmanifazli, Hadi

doi:10.22050/pbr.2026.554698.1418

Examining the National Development Fund's Investment Model in Upstream Oil & Gas Industries with Emphasis on Field Development Risks

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Ali Javadi ¹

Abbas Kazemi Najafabadi ²

Hadi Rahmanifazli ³

¹ Ph.D. Student, International Oil and Gas Contracts Management, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran

² Associated Professor, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran

³ Assistant Professor, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran

https://doi.org/10.22050/pbr.2026.554698.1418

Abstract

The present study examines the investment model of the National Development Fund (NDF) in the upstream oil and gas industries, focusing on the risks associated with field development. Given the NDF's recent entry into the investment arena, the challenges in this field have been analyzed in this article. Furthermore, the NDF 's investment policies and guidelines, project prioritization, and the Non-Meddle Investment model (I-HOPE) as the NDF’s main strategy to reduce risk and increase resource effectiveness are introduced and analyzed in detail. Finally, alongside a comparative review of the NDF’s investment model and field development challenges, solutions are proposed to improve the NDF’s investment process in this sector. This study, by evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of the I-HOPE model in confronting the inherent risks of field development, provides a framework for optimizing future investments. These measures help the NDF to optimally manage risks, increase resource returns, and play a more effective role in the country's economic development.
Keywords: Non-Meddle Investment Model, Risk, Uncertainty

Highlights

· I-HOPE model represents a fundamental strategic shift for the NDF, moving from a passive lender to an active, yet non-controlling, investor in projects.

· Field development stage in upstream oil and gas is a point of immense risk, characterized by critical subsurface uncertainties, costly surface facility construction, exposure to volatile economic factors, etc., all of which are amplified by the project's long-term horizon and significant capital commitment.

· Present article critically reviews the NDF's I-HOPE investment model, assessing its "non-meddle" philosophy against the high-risk, capital-intensive, and uncertain nature of oil and gas field development projects.

· Successful implementation of I-HOPE model hinges on the NDF transforming into a knowledge-based investor. Beyond capital, this requires establishing robust, independent technical advisory bodies, deploying advanced digital monitoring tools, creating a powerful macro-risk management unit, etc. Most critically, institutional mechanisms to shield its investment decisions and operational processes from governmental interference shall be designed.

Keywords

Keywords: Non-Meddle Investment Model

Risk

Uncertainty

Subjects

Oil and Gas Economics and Management

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