Oil Revenues, Fluctuations in Economic Growth Rates and the Risk of political Instability in Iran in post JCPOA

Document Type: Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, International Relation Department, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran

2 Researcher in Economic Issues, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

The present paper is meant to answer the question: How fluctuation in economic growth rate increased the risk of instability in Iran in the Post-JCPOA? In response and based on reliable data and taking a political economy approach, it is hypothesized that the high fluctuations in the economic growth rate associated with JCPOA has led to the political instability through deepening and intensification of expectations gap. To do so and using a comparative method, a number of factors associated with calculating modes of added value (sub-sectors including agriculture, oil, industry and mining, and ) as well as international indicators affecting the economic growth are analyzed in the two time spans of pre and post JCPOA. For further validity, reference is made to the results of some polls conducted by some credible institutes. The findings show that the sudden rise and fall of the economic growth rate due to oil revenues after the agreement turned the hope created in the context of the expected gap formed by the promises of the agreement into disappointment; and paved the way for street unrests

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