Futures of Iran’s oil and gas; scenarios by 2035

Document Type: Original Article

Author

institute for international energy studies

10.22050/pbr.2019.119195

Abstract

Iran is one of the most important oil and gas producing countries in the world with 153.8 billion barrels of crude oil and 33.5 billion cubic meters of gas has 9.3% and 18% share of total oil and gas reservoirs, respectively. Rich hydrocarbon reservoirs along with a special geographical location are of the most important competitive advantages of Iran. The oil value chain has a special place in the social, economic structure and level of development of Iran. In policy-making, especially in global equations and in the long run, where uncertainty is an integral part it is necessary to pay attention to this area. As a strategic knowledge, futures studies can play an important role in mapping the future. In current study, the possible and plausible futures of Iran's fossil energies (oil and gas) in the 2035 horizon are presented in the form of four scenarios. In an environment where variables are dynamic and constantly changing and uncertainty is high, using scenario building methods is preferable for long-term horizons. In this study, 30 drivers with high uncertainty and impact on the future of Iranian oil and gas were produced. Using the cross impact analysis model and the balanced impact model, out of 41,472 possible scenarios, 10 scenarios with maximum compatibility were obtained, that presented in four scenarios namely: clean scenario (low carbon), a bipolar Middle East scenario, a cooperation and development scenario, and finally a postponed dream scenario.

Keywords